2022 Projections - Halfway Point Check In


At the beginning of the season, I put up a very bare bones version of my projections this year. Between the lockout and some other factors, I wasn't going to get 40 individually done projections out there (20 or so of them are still in my drafts all written up...oh well).


On the morning of July 4th (before their game with the Braves), the Cardinals had completed half of their schedule. i was going to go ahead and try to write this up then, but if you've ever been to Kansas City for the 4th of July, then you know it's an all-day affair over here. It's absolutely ridiculous. It wasn't gonna get done. I posted up some screen shots of where the team was prior to the 82nd game of the season on Twitter for easy reference later. Here are the hitter stats:


That is a lot of information to digest without doing it one at a time. That is what this post is for! Let's go through them one by one. I'll likely only go through the guys with at least 80 PA on the year. Herrera's 22 and Capel's 7 and Robertson's 1 are very much too small of a sample to go on...not that 80 is huge either.


What I would like to show here is what I would normally show in the pre-season. The actual projection will be the first line I show you, what I call "THE GOOD" will be the second one listed, and what I call "THE BAD" will be the third one listed. I would say that these are my 90th and 10th percentile projections but I don't have anything as scientifically (or even mathematically / statistically) completed as such. These are just one higher and one lower outcome that have much smaller percent chances of happening as my actual projection does - which is what I consider my 50th percentile projection (although again, not necessarily mathematically accurate, just where my system is currently at in terms of projecting).

 

Tommy Edman


Actual Line:

345 PA, .270/.340/.395/.736


Projections:


Tommy Edman started out hitting much more like THE GOOD or better in April, but has since hit as bad as THE BAD or worse since then. His line is slightly better than his projection at the moment - although as the leadoff hitter I'll very much take his line with that .340 OBP despite the lower slugging than the projection suggests.

 

Paul Goldschmidt


Actual Line:

338 PA, .341/.423/.625/1.047


Projections:

Paul Goldschmidt's actual season is what we would call hitting his 99th percentile projection if we look at my three below it. He's been dominant this year. You don't need my projections to tell you that.

 

Nolan Arenado


Actual Line:

324 PA, .290/.352/.539/.891


Projections:

Nolan Arenado, like Edman, started out really hot this year. Well above THE GOOD in the month of April. He has since cooled off, but not like Edman has. Arenado is just below what I have as his THE GOOD projection. I would have to check, but I believe I said in my pre-season post on Arenado that never got posted that I believed he would fall somewhere in between THE CERUTTI and THE GOOD this year. So far he's right on track for that and I love it.

 

Harrison Bader


Actual:

264 PA, .256/.303/.370/.673


Projections: