At the beginning of the season, I put up a very bare bones version of my projections this year. Between the lockout and some other factors, I wasn't going to get 40 individually done projections out there (20 or so of them are still in my drafts all written up...oh well).
On the morning of July 4th (before their game with the Braves), the Cardinals had completed half of their schedule. i was going to go ahead and try to write this up then, but if you've ever been to Kansas City for the 4th of July, then you know it's an all-day affair over here. It's absolutely ridiculous. It wasn't gonna get done. I posted up some screen shots of where the team was prior to the 82nd game of the season on Twitter for easy reference later. Here are the hitter stats:
That is a lot of information to digest without doing it one at a time. That is what this post is for! Let's go through them one by one. I'll likely only go through the guys with at least 80 PA on the year. Herrera's 22 and Capel's 7 and Robertson's 1 are very much too small of a sample to go on...not that 80 is huge either.
What I would like to show here is what I would normally show in the pre-season. The actual projection will be the first line I show you, what I call "THE GOOD" will be the second one listed, and what I call "THE BAD" will be the third one listed. I would say that these are my 90th and 10th percentile projections but I don't have anything as scientifically (or even mathematically / statistically) completed as such. These are just one higher and one lower outcome that have much smaller percent chances of happening as my actual projection does - which is what I consider my 50th percentile projection (although again, not necessarily mathematically accurate, just where my system is currently at in terms of projecting).
Tommy Edman
Actual Line:
345 PA, .270/.340/.395/.736
Projections:
Tommy Edman started out hitting much more like THE GOOD or better in April, but has since hit as bad as THE BAD or worse since then. His line is slightly better than his projection at the moment - although as the leadoff hitter I'll very much take his line with that .340 OBP despite the lower slugging than the projection suggests.
Paul Goldschmidt
Actual Line:
338 PA, .341/.423/.625/1.047
Projections:
Paul Goldschmidt's actual season is what we would call hitting his 99th percentile projection if we look at my three below it. He's been dominant this year. You don't need my projections to tell you that.
Nolan Arenado
Actual Line:
324 PA, .290/.352/.539/.891
Projections:
Nolan Arenado, like Edman, started out really hot this year. Well above THE GOOD in the month of April. He has since cooled off, but not like Edman has. Arenado is just below what I have as his THE GOOD projection. I would have to check, but I believe I said in my pre-season post on Arenado that never got posted that I believed he would fall somewhere in between THE CERUTTI and THE GOOD this year. So far he's right on track for that and I love it.
Harrison Bader
Actual:
264 PA, .256/.303/.370/.673
Projections:
Harrison Bader has not been very good this year at the plate, has he? With him having been on the IL multiple times this year and his lack of hitting this season, I'm shocked he is 4th on the team in PA, honestly.
Dylan Carlson
Actual Line:
241 PA, .255/.320/.417/.736
Projections
If you'd have told me prior to the season that Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman had the same OPS at the halfway point of the year, I would not have believed you. And if I did believe you, I would have been fearful that Carlson was hitting this poorly.
Brendan Donovan
Actual Line:
222 PA, .296/.405/.414/.819
Projections:
My projections on Brendan Donovan were clearly high man on the totem pole to start the season. I had been calling for him to be the everyday leadoff man since December or so and he didn't break spring with the team. Then, he came up and hit, hit, hit. He has the 6th most PA on the club now and has entrenched himself as a starter - somewhere on the diamond - nearly anywhere on the diamond. That said, he could lose 16 points of BA, 24 points of OBP, and 14 points of SLG and still be at THE GOOD projection for him. He's been beyond expectations.
Juan Yepez
Actual Line:
.276/.317/.506/.823
Projections:
So Juan's batting average is about at what THE GOOD would suggest it should be, but his OBP is more at what THE BAD would believe. He's not getting the walks he was getting in the minors. I don't know if the pitchers are attacking him more or if he's chasing more than what he did in the minors trying to create damage. He IS creating damage however, with a SLG higher than my projected line. Nice to see my projections having his OPS at nearly exactly what he's got - although I'd love for it to be a little more OBP-centric in the actual line.
Tyler O'Neill
Actual Line:
185 PA, .241/.292/.361/.653
Projections:
Tyler O'Neill has hit the IL twice this season and you'd have expected that seeing his current line. Nobody expects a SLG as low as that for O'Neill. There's really no reason to unless he is injured. Nobody expects him to be 8th on the list of plate appearances either, unless he's injured. Let's hope he comes back healthy and can get himself up to one of these lines that I projected by the end of the year.
Andrew Knizner
Actual Line:
145 PA, .183/.285/.238/.523
Projections:
So this is worse than my worst projections had for Knizner - and this is with him getting more time behind the plate than he had been getting. That's NOT GOOD. The fact that Yadi is injured and Knizner is beginning to get less playing time is a giant red flag for next year.
Albert Pujols
Actual Line:
140 PA, .192/.286/.325/.611
Projections:
Pujols line is likely what it should look like with his approximate 60/40 split of PA going towards RHP away from LHP. He needed to be a guy that got 75-80% of his PA against LHP instead of RHP. He hasn't.
Nolan Gorman
Actual Line:
138 PA, .248/.319/.456/.775
Projections:
Nolan Gorman has been right in line with what I thought he would do except with even more power than my projections believed. His average and OBP are fairly close to those numbers, but his SLG is close to THE GOOD's projection - and with an even better ISO. Man, he's been as advertised.
Yadier Molina
Actual Line:
138 PA, .213/.225/.294/.519
Projections:
Yadi has been abysmal this season, I really don't think there's any other way around that one. He had trouble coming to camp in shape. He's having trouble behind the plate. He's having trouble hitting. He's having trouble staying healthy - on the IL now. Let's hope he gets some kind of swan song at the end of the year to finish off his career.
Edmundo Sosa
Actual Line:
101 PA, .200/.248/.284/.532
Projections:
Never once did I think that we'd see this low of a level of play from Edmundo Sosa in his age 27 season. This is not at all in the range of where my projections had him either. He's been bad. Really bad.
Paul DeJong
Actual Line:
86 PA, .130/.209/.208/.417
Projections:
Let's just put it this way and then move on quickly: The Cardinals have stored Paul DeJong in the minors for as long as they possibly can despite him being a past All-Star and 2nd place finisher in rookie of the year voting because he only wishes he could have Edmundo Sosa's batting line.
Lars Nootbaar
Actual Line:
81 PA, .139/.222/.250/.472
Projections:
Man, there's a really good reason these last three guys don't have the combined plate appearances of any one of those top three guys listed, isn't there? In hindsight for many (and yet not so hindsight-y for some), Nootbaar was the ideal trade candidate this offseason apparently. Man it would have been nice to sell high on someone for once and Nootbaar had an AFL line of: .314/.437/.643/1.080 in more PA than he's gotten April-July 3 of this season...because his numbers aren't even half of that.
Now I will do the same for the pitching side of things. The Cardinals have 17 guys who have at least 15 innings three months into the season, I'll look at those 102.4817:
Miles Mikolas
Actual Line:
100 IP, 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.76 K:BB, 3.49 FIP
Projections:
124 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 3.81 K:BB, 4.08 FIP
150 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 4.61 K:BB, 3.69 FIP
102 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 3.15 K:BB, 4.48 FIP
Mikolas has exceeded health expectations and performance expectations this year. The Cardinals badly need this to continue as we will see that this is not the case across the board for sure.
Adam Wainwright
Actual Line:
96 2/3 IP, 3.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB, 3.55 FIP
Projections:
186 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.170 WHIP, 3.10 K:BB, 3.85 FIP 225 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 3.75 K:BB, 3.45 FIP
154 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.287 WHIP, 2.56 K:BB, 4.25 FIP
Wainwright is meeting expectations - except he's doing it as an "Old Man" as he says. That's quite incredible because it really means he's exceeding expectations as well with Father Time (in professional sports terms) watching him closely. (I feel I can say this as I'm older than he is.)
Dakota Hudson
Actual Line:
80 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.22 K:BB, 4.45 FIP
Projections:
170 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 1.72 K:BB, 4.14 FIP
206 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 2.08 K:BB, 3.75 FIP
141 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.476 WHIP, 1.42 K:BB, 4.53 FIP
Dakota Hudson is far below the expectations of my projections system and he really hadn't been terrible tot hat point. I believe he pitched the 82nd game of the season and got walloped, though. The numbers are worse than that at the moment which means he's even further below these system projections. Now, I know when I did my guesses I thought that THE BAD's ERA was probably the closest to what he would do because my system likes his ability to beat FIP badly and eventually that was going to catch up to him.
Andre Pallante
Actual Line:
55 2/3 IP, 2.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 1.50 K:BB, 4.10 FIP
Projections:
139 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.832 WHIP, 1.45 K:BB, 4.47 FIP
168 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.665 WHIP, 1.75 K:BB, 4.03 FIP
115 IP, 4.58 ERA, 2.015 WHIP, 1.20 K:BB, 4.93 FIP
So apparently my projections weren't going to be really big fans of Pallante. Pallante is beating all of them uite easily and I would expect him to. Those numbers see a guy who had just 114 batters faced at the AAA and AFL level and wasn't incredible there even and figured that he would get beat up a bit in the majors.
Steven Matz
Actual Line:
37 1/3 IP, 6.03 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.50 K:BB, 4.27 FIP
Projections:
142 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, 3.16 K:BB, 4.34 FIP
172 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 3.82 K:BB, 3.85 FIP
118 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.512 WHIP, 2.61 K:BB, 4.84 FIP
I think that I was the low man on the totem pole regarding Steven Matz's projections this spring. So far, my WHIP and FIP are about right on. My IP projection is going to be tough for Matz to get to and so is my ERA projection. Matz's K:BB has been incredible good - surprising me greatly because I just don't see him with good command of his sinker, which he uses 48% of the time. Can we note how absolutely horrifying it is that Steven Matz - on the IL since May 23rd - is 5th on this team in innings pitched?
Ryan Helsley
Actual Line:
32 2/3 IP, 0.83 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 4.55 K:BB, 1.46 FIP
Projections:
66 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 1.92 K:BB, 4.12 FIP
80 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 2.32 K:BB, 3.65 FIP
54 IP, 4.58 ERA, 1.579 WHIP, 1.58 K:BB, 4.60 FIP
Hels Bells has Ryan Helsley been good! Absolutely incredible. Way above expectations.
Genesis Cabrera
Actual Line:
31 2/3 IP, 2.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.17 K:BB, 4.95 FIP
Projections:
77 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 2.18 K:BB, 4.17 FIP
93 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, 2.64 K:BB, 3.64 FIP
64 IP 5.02 ERA, 1.579 WHIP, 1.80 K:BB, 4.71 FIP
Genesis Cabrera is another guy who is quite interesting this year. He has a very low ERA and WHIP compared to projections (and overall really), but his FIP says that he should be worse than my THE BAD projection and his K:BB is about where I thought it would be. Just an interesting year. Let's hope he can keep up the run prevention.
Jordan Hicks
Actual Line:
30 1/3 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.45 K:BB, 4.96 FIP
Projections:
19 IP, 5.29 ERA, 1.502 WHIP, 1.48 K:BB, 4.35 FIP
22 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 1.79 K:BB, 3.84 FIP
15 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.652 WHIP, 1.23 K:BB, 4.87 FIP
Jordan Hicks has already thrown more innings than I was expecting to get out of him this year, so that's sort of a win. He pitched basically like my THE GOOD projection would suggest per his ERA and his WHIP, but his K:BB is similar to my actual projection and his FIP is worse then THE BAD. Another strange line for a Cardinals' pitcher this year.
Giovanny Gallegos
Actual Line:
30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4.11 K:BB, 2.85 FIP
Projections:
67 IP, 2.99 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 4.94 K:BB, 2.83 FIP
81 IP, 2.72 ERA, 0.839 WHIP, 5.98 K:BB, 2.39 FIP
5 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 4.08 K:BB, 3.28 FIP
LOL, I think I almost nailed this one, eh? Gio is a lock down reliever. It's a shame he's gonna get expensive soon.
Nick Wittgren
Actual Line:
29 IP, 5.90 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 1.70 K:BB, 3.84 FIP
Projections:
53 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 3.90 K:BB, 4.38 FIP
76 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 4.72 K:BB, 3.86 FIP
52 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 3.22 K:BB, 4.91
This year has quite easily been worst case scenario for Wittgren and the Cardinals signing him. He's been DFA already.
TJ McFarland
Actual Line:
26 2/3 IP, 7.43 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB, 4.99 FIP
Projections:
66 IP, 4.12 ERA, 1.354 WHIP, 2.50 K:BB, 4.24 FIP
79 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 3.03 K:BB, 3.86 FIP
54 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.489 WHIP, 2.07 K:BB, 4.63 FIP
Again we're looking at worst case scenario for McFarland and the Cardinals after they re-signed him. That's the theme of this predictably horrible offseason's worth of (in-)action.
Jake Woodford
Actual Line:
20 2/3 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.38 K:BB, 3.84 FIP
Projections:
103 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB, 4.80 FIP
125 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.272 WHIP, 2.42 K:BB, 4.32 FIP
85 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 1.65 K:BB, 5.29 FIP
Jake Woodford has basically met or obliterated nearly everything on my THE GOOD projections. So why isn't he getting innings? I don't know. I. Don't. Know.
Mathew Liberatore
Actual Line:
20 2/3 IP, 5.66 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 1.64 K:BB, 5.49 FIP
Projections:
106 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.551 WHIP, 2.59 K:BB, 4.25 FIP
128 IP, 4.12 ERA, 1.410 WHIP, 3.14 K:BB, 3.77 FIP
87 IP, 4.99 ERA, 1.706 WHIP, 2.14 K:BB, 4.75 FIP
When your WHIP is higher than your K:BB, your debut is not going as hoped. Not even close.
Drew VerHagen
Actual Line:
20 IP, 6.30 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 1.23 K:BB, 6.22 FIP
Projections:
102 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 2.89 K:BB, 3.49 FIP
123 IP, 3.70 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 3.50 K:BB, 3.07 FIP
84 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 2.39 K:BB, 3.91 FIP
VerHagen has not been nearly what I had hoped, even the worst version of what my projections said. That is not good...again, see the WHIP that is nearly 50% higher than his K:BB.
Zack Thompson
Actual Line:
18 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.17 K:BB, 4.12 FIP
Projections:
72 IP, 6.35 ERA, 1.980 WHIP, 1.43 K:BB, 5.66 FIP
87 IP, 5.77 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, 1.73 K:BB, 5.03 FIP
60 IP, 6.98 ERA, 2.178 WHIP, 1.18 K:BB, 6.33 FIP
So my projections for Thompson might be one of the worst I've ever seen and than goodness they've been wrong so far because Thompson has been pretty decent!
Johan Oviedo
Actual Line:
17 1/3 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB, 4.56 FIP
Projections:
110 IP, 5.93 ERA, 1.787 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB, 4.89 FIP
133 IP, 5.39 ERA, 1.625 WHIP, 1.88 K:BB, 4.34 FIP
91 IP, 6.53 ERA, 1.966 WHIP, 1.284 K:BB, 5.46 FIP
Johan's projection was just barely better than Zack Thompson's - and thank goodness this time Oviedo has actually been better than his projections for once!
Packy Naughton
Actual Line:
17 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.75 K:BB, 3.59 FIP
Projections:
64 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.592 WHIP, 2.76 K:BB, 3.96 FIP
77 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, 3.34 K:BB, 3.55 FIP
53 IP, 5.37 ERA, 1.751 WHIP, 2.28 K:BB, 4.38 FIP
Naughton has already been an interesting case for the Cardinals. He has an ERA that is in line with my projection, but a FIP that is in line with THE GOOD, along with a WHIP and K:BB that are even beter than THE GOOD projection.
So now we're all caught up. Sorry it came out late. A little busy the last few days. Appreciate anyone reading this still at this point!