The 162 game major league season can be broken up quite easily into two 81 game halves or three 54 game thirds, but not into four quarters very easily. It is thus that I am doing a (belated due to computer issues) check in at the one-third of the way mark 54 games into the St. Louis Cardinals 2024 season.
Every year I like to look and see how my projection system is faring at certain marks of the year. This year I am a bit more interested in seeing due to the changes I placed within the system from prior years. Let's go ahead and dive in, no?
Pitchers
After 54 games, the St. Louis Cardinals were 27-27. Here are the statistics on Fangraphs of the 18 pitchers the Cardinals had used up to that point of the season. Now we need to check that against what my projections were for those pitchers. We'll go in the order listed below, first for players with games started and then second for the relievers.
I think that so far my projection system is pretty close for Gibson. I sincerely hope he can continue to outperform his FIP with a worse K:BB than projected, but I'm afraid that an ERA of 5+ for a couple of months is coming to even this out a bit.
I think that so far my projection system is pretty close for Mikolas as well. However, Mikolas is in the opposite boat of Gibson in that his actual numbers have a similar FIP but a better K:BB and a worse ERA. I think that if the K:BB stays better than projected then the ERA is going to shoot down towards 4.49 more quickly than most would imagine. Hopefully that will offset any Kyle Gibson regression.
I think that so far my projection system is way off on Lance Lynn. Lynn is having trouble pitching deeper into games, but that might actually be helping his ERA and FIP not facing as many lineups the third or fourth times through the order. Lance Lynn was brought in partially to eat innings - which he is definitely not doing as much of as my projections thought - but instead the Cardinals are doing their best at getting the best possible innings out of Lynn instead.
I think that so far my projection system is a bit off on Sonny Gray, but somewhat close. He's simply been incredible when it comes to K:BB this year leading to his much better FIP and ERA and I, for one, believe that he should just keep on doing what he's doing and not get hurt any longer. At least for the next two and (slightly more than) a half years.
I think that so far my projection system is way off on Steven Matz. They thought that he would actually be a lot better than he has been before getting injured this year, but he was positively dreadful for the most part, yet again, to start a season. Then he got hurt. The next step on the Steven Matz train will likely be to come back from injury to the bullpen where he will get better numbers and then he will make his way into the rotation to tantalize for 3-4 starts to end the year.
I think that so far my projection system is about right on Matthew Liberatore. With the IP way off, the system was obviously believing that he'd be a starter more often than just 3 of his 17 games. Of course, with the way the actual ERA, FIP, and K:BB were going it's a good move by the Cardinals to limit those innings per outing.
I think that so far my projection system was way off on Zack Thompson. He's doing a better job with K:BB (especially Ks) than I would have thought, but he's allowing runs at a huge rate and that's not good. I don't know that I see this turning around unless they put him back the relief role that he did better in last year.
I think that so far my projection system can't be mad at being nearly perfect on Andre Pallante despite his actual K:BB being quite lackluster.
Relievers are such a small sample to begin with, I am going to only look at guys with 15+ IP at this point. That means we'll see comparisons of Romero, Helsley, Kittredge, Fernandez, and King. That puts them on pace for 45+ IP on the year.
I think that so far my projection system has wildly underestimated Jojo Romero's start to the season...although not as much as the ERA might suggest if you're looking at the FIP instead - much more reliable over a small sample. His K:BB is phenomenal at this point of the year.
I think that so far my projection system would believe this Ryan Helsley season is within the error bars of where it projected him to be at this point. That's just under a quarter point of FIP and around a half point ERA difference in his 25 innings pitched. Not bad!
I think that so far my projection system is pretty spot on here as well. Thankfully both he and Helsley are doing slightly better on the K:BB and ERA than their FIPs, which were much closer to my projection. Keep it up back end of the pen!
I think that so far my projection system is surprised by Ryan Fernandez. Maybe last year's (relative) struggles in the minors weren't too much to be bothered with and he was just meant to be this guy coming up that he was in 2021-2022 at the minor league level. Hopefully he doesn't get overexposed and adjusted to very quickly and can help out all year.
I think that so far my projection system is wowed by King as it likely was as high or higher than anyone on his prospects for this season...and he is outplaying them by a rather wide margin with a K:BB nearly triple the rate and an ERA of nearly 1/3 of the rate. Good gravy, John King. Go dude go!
So there you have it. There are the pitchers. I will take a look at the hitters coming soon - likely tomorrow.
Comments