Cerutti's Projections Check-In at the Halfway Point - The Pitchers


Back in February and March, I unveiled my 2019 Projection Series for all of the assumed Cardinals position players and pitchers for the 2019 season. You can click on the link above to go back to any of those individual projections that you would like and even read the primer about my process and how I got into doing this in the first place if you have yet to do so.


At this point in the year, 81 games into the season, I like to check in and see what players are doing compared to my projections of them. Let's finish with the pitchers. First, here is the projected stats sheet from prior to the season for pitchers:

Cerutti's 2019 Projection Spreadsheet

When I go through them, I will start with whomever has the most innings pitched and continue down through the list until we are done looking at them. If a player has been better than I expected, the player will be green. If their projection seems to be right on, the player will be yellow. If a player has been worse than I expected, the player will be red. These are all thanks to Nicholas Childress. (The photos are an homage to and based on Cardinalsgifs' prior work with the cover art for individual projections in the offseason.) Onto the analysis (note: after ERA, I am going to put the average of xFIP, FIP, and SIERA in parenthesis):


Miles MIkolas

I projected him to be a 103 IP, 2.71 ERA (3.08), 1.109 WHIP, 5.24 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 35.5 runs allowed, 86.5 K, and 16.5 BB with 8 HR allowed. Here is where Mik is at:


89 1/3 IP, 5.57 IP/GS

4.33 ERA (4.34), 1.24 WHIP

44 runs allowed, 65 K, 17 BB, 14 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Mikolas has not been anywhere close to the pitcher he was last year, nor the pitcher I thought he would be this year based on my projections. He will have to dominate the second half to sniff 200 innings.


Dakota Hudson

I projected him to be an 85 IP, 3.07 ERA (3.65), 1.482 WHIP, 1.58 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 33 runs allowed, 56 K, and 35.5 BB with 2.5 HR allowed. Here is where Hudson is at:


87 1/3 IP, 5.44 IP/GS

3.40 ERA (4.66), 1.51 WHIP

47 runs allowed, 62 K, 38 BB, 12 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Dakota Hudson has basically been exactly what I thought he would be...except for the incredibly high number of home runs allowed (as with the rest of the group). I had the Cardinals allowing ~125 HR this year. They've already given up 111 (after the first 81 games). Holy moly.


Jack Flaherty

I projected him to be a 91 IP, 3.46 ERA (3.60), 1.280 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 38 runs allowed, 99 K, and 33 BB, with 10 HR allowed. Here is where JFlare is at:


85 1/3 IP, 5.32 IP/GS

4.75 ERA (4.04), 1.23 WHIP

46 runs allowed, 94 K, 27 BB, with 18 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Now, this one is mostly the homers allowed as all. The WHIP is pretty close, as are the Ks. The BB are a little high (and along with the high HR) leading to less IP. I'll count this as red, but it could be yellow with a just the tiniest amount of good regression in the second half.


Adam Wainwright

I projected him to be a 61 IP, 4.28 ERA (3.80), 1.402 WHIP, 2.54 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 31 runs allowed, 52 K, and 20.5 BB, with 6 HR allowed. Here is where Waino is at:


82 2/3 IP, 5.48 IP/GS

4.35 ERA (4.43), 1.38 WHIP

41 runs allowed, 76 K, 33 BB, with 11 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. With the exception of the amount of innings pitched, this one is looking pretty close, but seeing as though he's passed up where I thought he would be by about 33% of the innings, I gotta give it to Waino and say that he's been better than advertised, even with the explosion of homers.


Michael Wacha

I projected him to be a 66.5 IP, 4.13 ERA (3.83), 1.353 WHIP, 2.48 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 34 runs allowed, 59.5 K, and 24 BB, with 7 HR allowed. Here is where Wacha is at:


73 IP, 5.62 IP/GS

5.30 ERA (5.34), 1.600 WHIP

47 runs allowed, 62 K, 37 BB, with 16 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Wacha is toast folks. At least, that's what you'd have to think looking just at the numbers. But, in his last 25 1/3 innings (over 1/3 of the season for him) he's got a 17:5 K:BB and just a 2.84 ERA allowed! Then again, it comes with a WHIP over 1.65 and a FIP of 4.62. So who knows?


John Gant

I projected him to be a 50 IP, 3.51 ERA (3.83), 1.350 WHIP, 2.35 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 23 runs allowed, 47 K, and 20 BB, with 5 HR allowed. Here is where Gant is at:


42 1/3 IP

2.34 ERA (3.57), 0.85 WHIP

11 runs allowed, 37 K, 12 BB, with 3 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. Gant has been better than expected, in large part because he's done a great job of keeping walks and homers under my projections. He's having a heck of a year. Hope he's an All-Star alternate once people drop out.


John Brebbia

I projected him to be a 30 IP, 3.60 ERA (3.62), 1.250 WHIP, 3.94 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 12.5 runs allowed, 33.5 K, and 8.5 BB, with 4 HR allowed. Here is where Brebbs is at:


39 2/3 IP

3.40 ERA (4.08), 1.18 WHIP

17 runs allowed, 46 K, 15 BB, with 5 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Brebbia has been about what I excpected Brebbia to be. His K and BB are both a bit higher than I thought and with the extra homers allowed, his runs allowed are slightly higher. Then again, he's being a bit overused at the moment, on pace for nearly 80 innings after I had him projected for 60 this year.


Giovanny Gallegos

I projected him to be a 30 IP, 2.85 ERA (2.46), 1.100 WHIP, 4.88 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 10.5 runs allowed, 39 K, and 8 BB, with 2.5 HR allowed. Here is where Gallegos is at:


37 IP

2.68 ERA (2.60), 0.84 WHIP

11 runs allowed, 52 K, 7 BB, with 4 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Gallegos has also been about as expected. His K:BB is even better than I thought it would be, though.


Jordan Hicks

I projected him to be a 35 IP, 3.86 ERA (3.91), 1.657 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 17.5 runs allowed, 32.5 K, and 21 BB, with 1 HR allowed. Here is where Hicks is at (and will finish due to his injury):


28 2/3 IP

3.14 ERA (3.12), 0.94 WHIP

10 runs allowed, 31 K, 11 BB, with 2 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. Hicks was better than my projections thought he would be in the first half. Remember, Hicks was where I warned that my projection doesn't do a good job on some things and that I personally thought he'd be better than my system did. God's speed coming back, sir!


Tyler Webb

NO IMAGE

I did not project Webb to make the team. He currently has the 10th most innings on the squad.


27 1/3 IP

3.95 ERA (4.97), 1.17 WHIP

12 runs allowed, 23 K, 14 BB, with 3 HR allowed


Analysis: Well, I mean, he made the team so he's doing better than I had expected. His ERA is also much better than expected and if he continues to run out an ERA below 4 I will be quite surprised unless he pitches obviously better than he has so far.


Andrew Miller

I projected him to be a 30 IP, 2.85 ERA (2.56), 1.033 WHIP, 4.35 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 10.5 runs allowed, 43.5 K, and 10 BB, with 2.5 HR allowed. Here is where Miller is at:


26 IP

4.15 ERA (4.02), 1.35 WHIP

16 runs allowed, 38 K, 12 BB, with 6 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Miller's turing into a LOOGY and that was basically worst case scenario for me.


Dominic Leone

I projected him to be a 30 IP, 3.90 ERA (3.91), 1.350 WHIP, 2.86 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 14 runs, 31.5 K, and 11 BB, with 4 HR allowed. Here is where Leone is at:


24 1/3 IP

7.40 ERA (4.58), 1.56 WHIP

20 runs allowed, 30 K, 12 BB, with 6 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Leone has just allowed so many more hits than I thought he would and so many going for home runs. Not a good combo. Oof.


Daniel Ponce de Leon

I projected him to be a 30 IP, 2.85 ERA (3.19), 1.250 WHIP, 2.37 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 12 runs, 32 K, and 13.5 BB, with 1.5 HR allowed. Here is where PDL is at:


20 1/3 IP

2.66 ERA (4.09), 1.03 WHIP

6 runs allowed, 25 K, 10 BB, with 3 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. At some point PDL just has to be used more, no? At some point the Cardinals will cut bait with more players as they've done the last couple of years, just keep skimming the fat? I dunno. All he's done is produce and there's no way to know he won't keep doing that (see: Gant) if we don't allow the try.


Carlos Martinez

Note: I projected Carlos Martinez to be a starter this year prior the the end of spring training, so these stats will look very different. I projected him to be a 105 IP, 3.34 ERA (3.75), 1.271 WHIP, 2.51 K:BB pitcher at the halfway point. At this point, I also had expected 43.5 runs, 104 K, and 41.5 BB, with 10 HR allowed. Here is where CMart is at:


15 IP

3.00 ERA (3.62), 1.07 WHIP

6 runs allowed, 14 K, 5 BB, with 1 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. He hasn't become that top starter again that he was in the past. That's gonna be a "worse than expected" for me despite the stats looking pretty good out of the pen. Now, if he becomes a dominant closer the rest of the year and solidifies the back end, we can maybe get this to a yellow, but not a green.