Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Jack Flaherty's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
33 starts, 196 1/3 innings, 5.949 IP/GS 2.75 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 0.968 WHIP 10.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.2 K:BB 17-16 team record in Flaherty starts
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
34 starts, 224 1/3 innings, 6.6 IP/GS 2.74 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.994 WHIP 11.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.96 K:BB
This is both a mix of what he did last year and slightly better than he did last year. I would not be shocked to see these numbers, but I wouldn't be appalled if he didn't reach these either.
THE BAD
(worst case)
34 starts, 185 1/3 innings, 5.455 IP/GS 3.32 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.203 WHIP 9.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.27 K:BB
For a worst case scenario, this is pretty darn nice, no?!?!?
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
34 starts, 204 innings, 6.00 IP/GS 3.02 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.094 WHIP 10.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.60 K:BB
If all of my projections come true, I foresee the Cardinals going 21-13 in his starts.
Jack Flaherty finished the 2019 season ranked 4th in the Cy Young Award voting and 13th in the Most Valuable Player voting in the National League. After a 5-game stretch from June 8th to July 2nd in which he saw his ERA jump from 3.76 to 4.90 on the season, after his 17th start, Jack Flaherty was simply amazing. There’s really no other words for it.
Over his last 16 starts of the year, Flaherty averaged 6⅔ innings pitched per start with a .139/.203/.217/.419 line against him and a 0.696 WHIP and a 0.93 ERA. Just wow.
I think that THE CERUTTI is definitely doable and (scarily enough), I believe THE GOOD could actually be a bit light on him. I think he could best all 3 of these.
Why do I think he can do that? Just look at what Flaherty throws at hapless hitters!
I mean, that's just not fair, is it?
Link back to all of my projections.