Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Brad Miller's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
170 PA - .260/.329/.565/.894
6 doubles, 1 triple, 13 homers
26 runs, 25 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
413 PA - .270/.364/.496/.860
19 doubles, 3 triples, 18 homers
57 runs, 56 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS
Yes, this best case scenario is a lower OPS than last year. It's also a MUCH higher OBP than he's ever had before in his life (in the majors). Truthfully, this best case is a little too "best case" for me...but I'd love it if it happened.
THE BAD
(worst case)
341 PA - .221/.304/.409/.712
13 doubles, 2 triples, 13 homers
39 runs, 38 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS
And here's a little bit of scariness. Luckily, it's only a $2M gamble. Can't have that production from him in over 300 PA because he's not giving you Bader's or Wong's defense.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
375 PA - .246/.335/.451/.786
16 doubles, 3 triples, 15 homers
47 runs, 46 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS
Brad Miller has largely been a league average hitter in his career and last year was not only his best in the majors but also his first year above a 100 OPS+ since 2016. It is his rough 2017-2018 campaigns that allowed him to be bought for cheap coming off of his best season ever. The Cardinals must hope that he's going to be the guy he was last year, which was predicated a bit off of him being dominant against RHP and rarely used against LHP. I think to get to THE CERUTTI and/or THE GOOD, he will need to be platooned quite well. Let's hope Shildt does well with that!
Link back to all of my projections.