Cardinals lead the series 1-0
Last night was the wildest of rides. From Miles Mikolas leading off the game by giving up back to back walks, to unusual errors by Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, and (for a moment, before the ruling was changed) Tommy Edman, and to the Cardinals offense getting late production from Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, and Wong, plus a 9th inning scare with Carlos Martínez on the mound, there was a excitement aplenty.
Though Dakota Hudson warmed up in the bullpen in both the 1st and the 9th innings, the Cardinals avoided needing to use that escape hatch, and pulled off the all-important game one win.
The Braves, meanwhile, lost a key bullpen piece when Chris Martin (who will be replaced by Julio Teheran) pulled up after his final warmup pitch and let the game with an oblique injury.
But, that was then. Now, it's Flaherty Day.
Tonight's Starters
Jack Flaherty
33 starts, 196.1 IP, 2.75 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 10.59 K/9, 39.5 Ground Ball%, 7.1 BB%, 6.9 Barrel%
Vs Braves (2019): 2 Starts, 12 IP, 3 R, 5 BB, 13 SO
Small Sample Size Warning:
Ronald Auña Jr. 7 AB, 1 H, 2 BB, 4 SO
Francisco Cervelli 12 AB, 3 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 4 SO
Freddie Freeman 8 AB, 3 H, (1 HR), 3 RBI, 2 SO
What you'll see (from Ben Cerutti)
"Flaherty might want to rely more on the breaking stuff as similar fastballs have been hit to an xwOBA of .393 by Braves hitters over the last two months."
Mike Foltynewicz
21 starts, 117.0 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 8.08 K/9, 36.7 Ground Ball%, 7.5 BB%, 7.8 Barrel%
Vs Cardinals (2019):
2 Starts 10.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 BB, 11 SO
Small Sample Size Warning:
Kolten Wong 11 AB, 5 H (2 2B, 1 HR), 3 BB
Paul Goldschmidt 21 AB, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 SO
Paul DeJong 10 AB, 3 H, (1 2B, 1 HR), 1 BB, 2 SO
What you'll see (from Ben Cerutti)
"...against offspeed pitches like his the Cardinals have just a .179 xwOBA in the last two months. If Folty only relies on it 8.4% of the time against the Cardinals, I think he'll be out of the game by the 4th."
Fun Facts
Paul Goldschmidt - Home run in the 8th inning on Thursday
In situations classified as "High Leverage" by FanGraphs, Paul Goldschmidt's strikeout percentage jumps up to 29.3 %, while his hard contact rate goes up to 51.4 %. Despite the anecdotal "feel" that Goldy hasn't been clutch in 2019, his high leverage wRC+ spikes from the season-long 116 to more a MVP-like 147 when it counts!
Freddie Freeman - Home run in the 9th inning on Thursday
Not to be outdone with the game on the line, Atlanta's star ups his game with runners in scoring position. In such circumstances, his on base percentage is a strong .453, he's slugging .570, and walking 14.9% of the time, giving him a 153 wRC+. That's RISPy.
Good Reads
"The road less traveled is terrifying. As re these five times that Jack Flaherty was very nearly not a Cardinal."
“Those pitches have to be better,” Melancon said. “The bullpen did good, in my opinion. It was me that did bad. I’m going to own that one. That’s on me. I feel like I gave that game away.”