How Sweep It Is! Post-Season Race Update

Un-be-liev-able!!! The Cardinals came into Wrigley and SWEPT THE CUPS beating them for 4 consecutive wins of the “7 Games Against The Cubs”, the Cardinals are The Team in the NL Central… What an incredible 4 wins.


Today's come from behind (AGAIN!) theatrics from Jose, Dexter, Tommy, & Goldy solidified

(1) The Cardinals are officially headed to the Post-Season and

(2) The Cubs are essentially dead.


Let's take a look at the new MLB Post-Season Odds makers, as of September 22, 2019:



CARDINALS PATH

(Division Leader)

(Magic Numbers: 4 Division, Clinched Post-Season)

There are just not enough adjectives to described it... These 4 wins against the Cubs were legendary! The Cardinals first time sweeping a 4-game series in Chicago since 1912! We all looked at those 7 Cubs Games on the schedule.. and the Cardinals have -- amazingly -- WON ALL FOUR IN CHICAGO. That is ridiculous! The Cardinals are in the Post-Season and continue to control their own destiny as they lead the Brewers by 3 games . With a Division magic number of 4 (with 6 games to go), any combination of 4 (wins by the Cardinals) + (losses by the Brewers) will give the Cardinals the NL Central Division. The odds are aligning giving the Cardinals a guarantee of making the Post-Season, and around 96% chance of winning the Division.


On Sept. 16, the Cubs had a 76.7% Chance of making the Post Season (via Fangraphs). After today's game??? It's basically over.... between 1-2%. The Cubs have been left on the side of the road by the Cardinals (and their amazing 9th Inning theatrics!)


CUBS PATH

(Division Path: NONE, Wild Card: 4 Games Back)

The Cardinals' Sweep of the Cubs has basically left the Cubs dead in the water. The Cubs are eliminated from winning the Division, and their chances at a Wild Card birth are between 1-2%. The Cubs will have to win (at least) 5 of their next 6 and have the Brewers or Nationals lose 4 of their final 7/8 games. The Cardinals demolished the Cubs... at Wrigley this weekend.



BREWERS PATH

(Division: 3 Games Back, Wild Card Leader)

(Magic Numbers: 10 Division, 3 Wild Card)

The Brewers still control their down destiny for a Wild Card spot and they still have a chance at the Division. As we noted previously, the Brewers took serious advantage of the Cardinals and Cubs facing each other in The 7 Games. While the Cubs were favored 4 days ago over the Brewers, I noted clearly that the Brewers "should be significantly favored above the Cubs." Right now, the Brewers just need to win 3 games (6 remaining) (against ONLY below-.500 teams) to guarantee a Wild Card spot. And with the Cubs' loss (the Cubs are done), the Brewers' job becomes easier and easier to clinch. On the other hand, with the Cardinals' sweep, the Brewers chances to win the NL Central are dropping -- even with their easy schedule. With less 6 games to go, the Brewers will need to have a combination of 10 (wins) + (losses by Cardinals) to win the NL Central. Those odds are tough -- especially the way the Cardinals are playing. But, considering their schedule and the Cubs' position, the Brewers are in the drivers' seat for a Wild Card spot!


As promised, it’s going be a wild ride over the next two weeks. Each game is meaningful, and each game has significant impact on which of these NL Central Opponents will make the Post-Season. The Cardinals continue to lead each of the other teams, but now, only Cardinals and the Brewers control their own post-season destiny



Adam Van Grack is an attorney at the law firm of Longman & Van Grack, LLC practicing litigation, business law, and sports law. Adam is a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals having attended Washington University in St. Louis for college and law school. Adam has been previously appointed as the Chair of a U.S. Olympic National Governing Body.