Today, I want to take a look back at the 2020 projections I made back in the summer. I debated doing this with such a small sample size...I really don't know what any of this will mean, but I like to do this every year - at least looking at it myself. So, I might as well share.
Here are all the players who either batted 40+ times or faced 40+ batters.
Considering Yadi had COVID and then came back and played both ends of a double header, I'll give myself a pass for being a bit high on Yadi here.
Well, I had him being pretty terrible. I didn't have him being a AA player in the majors at the plate. He came up all of 41 times...
NOT BAD, Cerutti! Not bad.
41 PA for Ravelo, but they were ugly.
I mentioned in my write up that my projections had not caught up to his decline yet. Man, I hate being right on that.
I got relatively panned for such a low projection on Edman. He didn't live up to it, unfortunately.
So, I nailed Wong exactly except that whole power thing - which nobody on the team had last year, basically.
Same as Wong - but I was WAY overboard on his power. He had COVID and no power.
Miller actually had power! Woo. I'd say I frickin' nailed this one.
TON had a lost season offensively. Congrats again on the Gold Glove, though.
Maybe this is why I'm still high on Bader? He actually went out and beat my projection - except for batting average.
My low projections for Carlson were not met in 2020. My projections this year again will be lower than most, most likely.
Fowler was basically exactly what I thought he would be. Nailed this one as well.
COVID affected Thomas greatly. He looked absolutely lost defensively and offensively after attempting to come back.
Actual: 3.15 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 3.60 K:BB
Projected: 4.12 ERA, 1.409 WHIP, 2.47 K:BB
So yeah, like everyone else, I was a bit low on Waino this year. He's definitely earned whatever contract he'll come back to next year.
Actual: 4.91 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 3.06 K:BB
Projected: 3.02 ERA, 1.094 WHIP,3.60 K:BB
Well, his ERA was a bit ugly this year, but his WHIP and K:BB weren't terribly far off of what I believed he could do. Hopefully that bodes well for 2021.
Actual: 1.62 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB
Projected: 3.24 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 3.39 K:BB
Kim's was basically the opposite of Flaherty. His ERA was shiny, but his WHIP and K:BB lead me to believe it could be a bit worse next year. Of course, a 3.24 ERA would do just fine in a full (or at least longer season).
Actual: 2.77 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.07 K:BB
Projected: 3.21 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, 1.64 K:BB
Hudson is starting to look better and better in my eyes. Of course, in true 2020 fashion, now he's out for the year.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Actual: 4.66 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 2.25 K:BB
Projected: 3.05 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 1.95 K:BB
So Ponce will learn to be a pitcher and not a thrower at some point and with how nasty his pitches are, I'm totally here for that!
Actual: 1.86 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 1.80 K:BB
Projected: 4.08 ERA, 1.487 WHIP, 2.41 K:BB
The Cardinals will need Gomber to continue to be this much better than my projections think in 2021 with Hudson out and Waino, as of now, not back.
Actual: 5.47 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 1.60 K:BB
Actual: 9.90 ERA, 2.100 WHIP, 1.70 K:BB
Projected: 3.37 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 2.57 K:BB
Actual: 2.42 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB
Projected: 4.96 ERA, 1.520 WHIP, 2.27 K:BB
Thank goodness. My projections for him sucked. I said at the time that they hadn't caught up to him yet. I am glad I was right.
Actual: 2.08 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 2.71 K:BB
Projected: 3.65 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 2.92 K:BB
I'd say I was pretty right on here, minus the ERA.
Actual: 3.20 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, 1.93 K:BB
Projected: 4.56 ERA, 1.531 WHIP, 2.19 K:BB
Okay, these actually weren't that bad at all either! We're on a roll.
Actual: 5.57 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB
Actual: 2.40 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 2.57 K:BB
Projected: 3.43 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 2.10 K:BB
He pitched quite well and I really like Gant. Hope my projections catch up a bit more with him next year. He's gonna be nails out of the pen again.
Actual: 3.60 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, 5.25 K:BB
Projection: 2.85 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 5.22 K:BB
Actual: 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB
Projected: 3.94 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 2.96 K:BB
Well done Mr. Miller. Continue to earn that option that got vested, sir!
Actual: 5.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 1.25 K:BB
Projected: 3.74 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 2.54 K:BB
So the inability to K people twice as often as he walked people (in comparison to my projection) did not allow him to get quickly enough out of innings and thus a higher ERA.
Actual: 4.63 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 1.75 K:BB