Closing out the 2020 Projections - How did I fare?



Today, I want to take a look back at the 2020 projections I made back in the summer. I debated doing this with such a small sample size...I really don't know what any of this will mean, but I like to do this every year - at least looking at it myself. So, I might as well share.


Here are all the players who either batted 40+ times or faced 40+ batters.


Yadier Molina

Actual: 262/.303/.359/.662

Projected: .265/.314/.414/.728


Considering Yadi had COVID and then came back and played both ends of a double header, I'll give myself a pass for being a bit high on Yadi here.


Matt Wieters

Actual: .200/.300/.229/.529

Projected: .230/.302/.386/.688


Well, I had him being pretty terrible. I didn't have him being a AA player in the majors at the plate. He came up all of 41 times...


Paul Goldschmidt

Actual: .304/.417/.466/.883

Projected: 278/.375/.513/.888


NOT BAD, Cerutti! Not bad.


Rangel Ravelo

Actual: .171/.244/.286/.530

Projected: .282/.365/.431/.796


41 PA for Ravelo, but they were ugly.


Matt Carpenter

Actual: .186/.325/.314/.640

Projected: .241/.362/.449/.811


I mentioned in my write up that my projections had not caught up to his decline yet. Man, I hate being right on that.


Tommy Edman

Actual: .250/.317/.368/.685

Projected: .269/.324/.405/.730


I got relatively panned for such a low projection on Edman. He didn't live up to it, unfortunately.


Kolten Wong

Actual: .265/.350/.326/.675

Projected: .271/.350/.408/.758


So, I nailed Wong exactly except that whole power thing - which nobody on the team had last year, basically.


Paul DeJong

Actual: .250/.322/.349/.671

Projected: .248/.319/.462/.782


Same as Wong - but I was WAY overboard on his power. He had COVID and no power.


Brad Miller

Actual: .232/.357/.451/.807

Projected: .246/.335/.451/.786

Miller actually had power! Woo. I'd say I frickin' nailed this one.


Tyler O'Neill

Actual: .173/.261/.360/.621

Projected: .252/.318/.500/.818


TON had a lost season offensively. Congrats again on the Gold Glove, though.


Harrison Bader

Actual: .226/.336/.443/.779

Projected: .246/.332/.422/.754


Maybe this is why I'm still high on Bader? He actually went out and beat my projection - except for batting average.


Dylan Carlson

Actual: .200/.252/.364/.616

Projected: .227/.313/.387/.700


My low projections for Carlson were not met in 2020. My projections this year again will be lower than most, most likely.


Dexter Fowler

Actual: .233/.317/.389/.706

Projected: .226/.311/.384/.695


Fowler was basically exactly what I thought he would be. Nailed this one as well.


Lane Thomas

Actual: .111/.200/.250/.450

Projected: .237/.312/.411/.723


COVID affected Thomas greatly. He looked absolutely lost defensively and offensively after attempting to come back.


Adam Wainwright

Actual: 3.15 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 3.60 K:BB

Projected: 4.12 ERA, 1.409 WHIP, 2.47 K:BB


So yeah, like everyone else, I was a bit low on Waino this year. He's definitely earned whatever contract he'll come back to next year.


Jack Flaherty

Actual: 4.91 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 3.06 K:BB

Projected: 3.02 ERA, 1.094 WHIP,3.60 K:BB


Well, his ERA was a bit ugly this year, but his WHIP and K:BB weren't terribly far off of what I believed he could do. Hopefully that bodes well for 2021.


Kwang-Hyun Kim

Actual: 1.62 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB

Projected: 3.24 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 3.39 K:BB


Kim's was basically the opposite of Flaherty. His ERA was shiny, but his WHIP and K:BB lead me to believe it could be a bit worse next year. Of course, a 3.24 ERA would do just fine in a full (or at least longer season).


Dakota Hudson

Actual: 2.77 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.07 K:BB

Projected: 3.21 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, 1.64 K:BB

Hudson is starting to look better and better in my eyes. Of course, in true 2020 fashion, now he's out for the year.


Daniel Ponce de Leon

Actual: 4.66 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 2.25 K:BB

Projected: 3.05 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 1.95 K:BB


So Ponce will learn to be a pitcher and not a thrower at some point and with how nasty his pitches are, I'm totally here for that!


Austin Gomber

Actual: 1.86 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 1.80 K:BB

Projected: 4.08 ERA, 1.487 WHIP, 2.41 K:BB


The Cardinals will need Gomber to continue to be this much better than my projections think in 2021 with Hudson out and Waino, as of now, not back.


Johan Oviedo

Actual: 5.47 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 1.60 K:BB

Not Projected


Carlos Martinez

Actual: 9.90 ERA, 2.100 WHIP, 1.70 K:BB

Projected: 3.37 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 2.57 K:BB


Gulp.


Genesis Cabrera

Actual: 2.42 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB

Projected: 4.96 ERA, 1.520 WHIP, 2.27 K:BB


Thank goodness. My projections for him sucked. I said at the time that they hadn't caught up to him yet. I am glad I was right.


Tyler Webb

Actual: 2.08 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 2.71 K:BB

Projected: 3.65 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 2.92 K:BB


I'd say I was pretty right on here, minus the ERA.


Alex Reyes

Actual: 3.20 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, 1.93 K:BB

Projected: 4.56 ERA, 1.531 WHIP, 2.19 K:BB


Okay, these actually weren't that bad at all either! We're on a roll.


Jake Woodford

Actual: 5.57 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB

Not Projected


John Gant

Actual: 2.40 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 2.57 K:BB

Projected: 3.43 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 2.10 K:BB


He pitched quite well and I really like Gant. Hope my projections catch up a bit more with him next year. He's gonna be nails out of the pen again.


Giovanny Gallegos

Actual: 3.60 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, 5.25 K:BB

Projection: 2.85 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 5.22 K:BB


S.T.U.D.


Andrew Miller

Actual: 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB

Projected: 3.94 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 2.96 K:BB


Well done Mr. Miller. Continue to earn that option that got vested, sir!


Ryan Helsley

Actual: 5.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 1.25 K:BB

Projected: 3.74 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 2.54 K:BB


So the inability to K people twice as often as he walked people (in comparison to my projection) did not allow him to get quickly enough out of innings and thus a higher ERA.


Seth Elledge

Actual: 4.63 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 1.75 K:BB

Not Projected