Today, I want to take a look back at the 2020 projections I made back in the summer. I debated doing this with such a small sample size...I really don't know what any of this will mean, but I like to do this every year - at least looking at it myself. So, I might as well share.
Here are all the players who either batted 40+ times or faced 40+ batters.
Yadier Molina
Actual: 262/.303/.359/.662
Projected: .265/.314/.414/.728
Considering Yadi had COVID and then came back and played both ends of a double header, I'll give myself a pass for being a bit high on Yadi here.
Matt Wieters
Actual: .200/.300/.229/.529
Projected: .230/.302/.386/.688
Well, I had him being pretty terrible. I didn't have him being a AA player in the majors at the plate. He came up all of 41 times...
Paul Goldschmidt
Actual: .304/.417/.466/.883
Projected: 278/.375/.513/.888
NOT BAD, Cerutti! Not bad.
Rangel Ravelo
Actual: .171/.244/.286/.530
Projected: .282/.365/.431/.796
41 PA for Ravelo, but they were ugly.
Matt Carpenter
Actual: .186/.325/.314/.640
Projected: .241/.362/.449/.811
I mentioned in my write up that my projections had not caught up to his decline yet. Man, I hate being right on that.
Tommy Edman
Actual: .250/.317/.368/.685
Projected: .269/.324/.405/.730
I got relatively panned for such a low projection on Edman. He didn't live up to it, unfortunately.
Kolten Wong
Actual: .265/.350/.326/.675
Projected: .271/.350/.408/.758
So, I nailed Wong exactly except that whole power thing - which nobody on the team had last year, basically.
Paul DeJong
Actual: .250/.322/.349/.671
Projected: .248/.319/.462/.782
Same as Wong - but I was WAY overboard on his power. He had COVID and no power.
Brad Miller
Actual: .232/.357/.451/.807
Projected: .246/.335/.451/.786
Miller actually had power! Woo. I'd say I frickin' nailed this one.
Tyler O'Neill
Actual: .173/.261/.360/.621
Projected: .252/.318/.500/.818
TON had a lost season offensively. Congrats again on the Gold Glove, though.
Harrison Bader
Actual: .226/.336/.443/.779
Projected: .246/.332/.422/.754
Maybe this is why I'm still high on Bader? He actually went out and beat my projection - except for batting average.
Dylan Carlson
Actual: .200/.252/.364/.616
Projected: .227/.313/.387/.700
My low projections for Carlson were not met in 2020. My projections this year again will be lower than most, most likely.
Dexter Fowler
Actual: .233/.317/.389/.706
Projected: .226/.311/.384/.695
Fowler was basically exactly what I thought he would be. Nailed this one as well.
Lane Thomas
Actual: .111/.200/.250/.450
Projected: .237/.312/.411/.723
COVID affected Thomas greatly. He looked absolutely lost defensively and offensively after attempting to come back.
Adam Wainwright
Actual: 3.15 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, 3.60 K:BB
Projected: 4.12 ERA, 1.409 WHIP, 2.47 K:BB
So yeah, like everyone else, I was a bit low on Waino this year. He's definitely earned whatever contract he'll come back to next year.
Jack Flaherty
Actual: 4.91 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 3.06 K:BB
Projected: 3.02 ERA, 1.094 WHIP,3.60 K:BB
Well, his ERA was a bit ugly this year, but his WHIP and K:BB weren't terribly far off of what I believed he could do. Hopefully that bodes well for 2021.
Kwang-Hyun Kim
Actual: 1.62 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB
Projected: 3.24 ERA, 1.430 WHIP, 3.39 K:BB
Kim's was basically the opposite of Flaherty. His ERA was shiny, but his WHIP and K:BB lead me to believe it could be a bit worse next year. Of course, a 3.24 ERA would do just fine in a full (or at least longer season).
Dakota Hudson
Actual: 2.77 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.07 K:BB
Projected: 3.21 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, 1.64 K:BB
Hudson is starting to look better and better in my eyes. Of course, in true 2020 fashion, now he's out for the year.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Actual: 4.66 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 2.25 K:BB
Projected: 3.05 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 1.95 K:BB
So Ponce will learn to be a pitcher and not a thrower at some point and with how nasty his pitches are, I'm totally here for that!
Austin Gomber
Actual: 1.86 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 1.80 K:BB
Projected: 4.08 ERA, 1.487 WHIP, 2.41 K:BB
The Cardinals will need Gomber to continue to be this much better than my projections think in 2021 with Hudson out and Waino, as of now, not back.
Johan Oviedo
Actual: 5.47 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 1.60 K:BB
Not Projected
Carlos Martinez
Actual: 9.90 ERA, 2.100 WHIP, 1.70 K:BB
Projected: 3.37 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 2.57 K:BB
Gulp.
Genesis Cabrera
Actual: 2.42 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 2.00 K:BB
Projected: 4.96 ERA, 1.520 WHIP, 2.27 K:BB
Thank goodness. My projections for him sucked. I said at the time that they hadn't caught up to him yet. I am glad I was right.
Tyler Webb
Actual: 2.08 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 2.71 K:BB
Projected: 3.65 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 2.92 K:BB
I'd say I was pretty right on here, minus the ERA.
Alex Reyes
Actual: 3.20 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, 1.93 K:BB
Projected: 4.56 ERA, 1.531 WHIP, 2.19 K:BB
Okay, these actually weren't that bad at all either! We're on a roll.
Jake Woodford
Actual: 5.57 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB
Not Projected
John Gant
Actual: 2.40 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 2.57 K:BB
Projected: 3.43 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 2.10 K:BB
He pitched quite well and I really like Gant. Hope my projections catch up a bit more with him next year. He's gonna be nails out of the pen again.
Giovanny Gallegos
Actual: 3.60 ERA, 0.867 WHIP, 5.25 K:BB
Projection: 2.85 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 5.22 K:BB
S.T.U.D.
Andrew Miller
Actual: 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 3.20 K:BB
Projected: 3.94 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 2.96 K:BB
Well done Mr. Miller. Continue to earn that option that got vested, sir!
Ryan Helsley
Actual: 5.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 1.25 K:BB
Projected: 3.74 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 2.54 K:BB
So the inability to K people twice as often as he walked people (in comparison to my projection) did not allow him to get quickly enough out of innings and thus a higher ERA.
Seth Elledge
Actual: 4.63 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 1.75 K:BB
Not Projected
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