4 Games to Go: Post-Season Race Update
After 19 Innings, the Cardinals were unable to win their 7th consecutive game. Despite the loss, it was an incredible run for the Cardinals.
But, even with the tough loss, all is not lost. Let's take a look at the new MLB Post-Season Odds makers, as of the morning of September 25, 2019:
CARDINALS PATH
(Division Magic Number: 3)
The Cardinals are in the Post-Season, and the continue to control their own destiny as they lead the Brewers by 2.5 games with only 4 games to go (the Brewers have 5 to go) .
With a Division Magic Number of 3, any combination of 3 (wins by the Cardinals in their Final 4 Games) + (losses by the Brewers in their Final 5 Games) will give the Cardinals the NL Central Division. The odds are aligning giving the Cardinals a 100% guarantee of making the Post-Season, and around 93-94% chance of winning the Division.
On Sept. 16, the Cubs had a 76.7% Chance of making the Post Season (via Fangraphs). Now??? It's basically over.... under 1%. Anyone have a good dead baby bear image?
CUBS PATH
(Division Path: NONE)
(Wild Card Magic Number: 8)
The Cardinals' Sweep of the Cubs has left the Cubs gasping for air, and the Pirates levied an upper cut to the Cubs last night (Really, Cubs? The PIRATES???) The Cardinals eliminated from winning the Division, and the Pirates (with their win over the Cubs last night) lowered the Cubs' chances at a Wild Card berth to below 1%. The Cubs will have to win ALL of their next 5 games and have the Brewers lose ALL of their final 5 games... and that likelihood is less than 1%
BREWERS PATH
(Division: 2.5 Games Back)
(2nd Wild Card Leader)
(Magic Numbers: 8 Division, 1 Wild Card)
The Brewers are almost a lock for a Wild Card spot (99%) and they still have a chance at the Division (6-7%). As we noted previously, the Brewers took serious advantage of the Cardinals and Cubs facing each other in The 7 Games. While the Cubs were favored 5 days ago over the Brewers, I noted clearly that the Brewers "should be significantly favored above the Cubs." Right now, the Brewers just need to win 1 game (5 remaining) (against ONLY below-.500 teams) to guarantee a Wild Card spot. On the other hand, the Brewers chances to win the NL Central are still extremely low -- even with their easy schedule. With 5 games to go, the Brewers will need to have a combination of 8 (wins) + (losses by Cardinals) to win the NL Central. Those odds are tough but, considering their schedule and the Cubs' position, the Brewers are in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot!
As promised, it’s going be a wild ride over the next week. Each game is meaningful, and each game has significant impact on which of these NL Central Opponents will make the Post-Season. The Cardinals continue to lead each of the other teams, but now, only Cardinals and the Brewers control their own post-season destiny.
Adam Van Grack is an attorney at the law firm of Longman & Van Grack, LLC practicing litigation, business law, and sports law. Adam is a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals having attended Washington University in St. Louis for college and law school. Adam has been previously appointed as the Chair of a U.S. Olympic National Governing Body.