Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Miles Mikolas' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
Did Not Pitch - Injured
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
11 starts, 70 2/3 innings, 6.42 IP/GS
3.22 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.055 WHIP 7.613 K/9, 1.369 BB/9, 5.055 K:BB
We're about a spring training of health past me believing that him bouncing back to this form is a possibility, unfortunately.
THE BAD
(worst case)
11 starts, 50 1/3 innings, 4.58 IP/GS 3.89 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.276 WHIP 6.291 K/9, 1.657 BB/9, 4.178 K:BB
We're almost to the point where I think even THE BAD is a bit optimistic on what Miles Mikolas could bring to the table this season due to health concerns.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
11 starts, 64 1/3 innings, 5.848 IP/GS 3.54 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.160 WHIP 6.920 K/9, 1.506 BB/9, 4.60 K:BB
If all of my projections come true, I foresee the Cardinals going 6-5 in his starts.
Assuming (which is a lot) that he can even give us these 11 starts this year, I think we may end up seeing those 4.5 innings an outing from THE BAD with BB rates over 2 per 9 innings and a K rate around 6.5 to 7 per 9 innings. That'd drop his K:BB a bit - down to the 3.5 range, which is perfectly acceptable. However, he gives up hits...and if he starts walking people, too, then that ERA could spike big time.
Hoping for health, Miles. Hoping for health.
Link back to all of my projections.