2021 Projection Series - Andrew Miller


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.


Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Giovanny Gallegos' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2020

16 games, 13 innings 2.77 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 1.077 WHIP 11.077 K/9, 3.462 BB/9, 3.20 K:BB

This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(best case)

66 games, 66 innings 3.98 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.212 WHIP 12.375 K/9, 3.877 BB/9, 2.902 K:BB


This would be fine from Andrew Miller. You would like to see THE GOOD be a bit more optimistic on the ERA, hopefully if he did all of that he'd have that 3.62 FIP as an ERA instead.


THE BAD

(worst case)

55 games, 55 innings

4.82 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.467 WHIP

10.228 K/9, 4.691 BB/9, 2.398 K:BB


Oof. This would be Miller's worst year ever, maybe? I don't like this at all. This could lead to his release with the arms the Cardinals have in this bullpen!


THE CERUTTI

(my system projection)

60 games, 60 innings 4.38 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.333 WHIP

11.250 K/9, 4.265 BB/9, 2.640 K:BB

I'm gonna go on a limb and say that Andrew Miller is going to be "THE GOOD" this year as opposed to THE CERUTTI. I don't think he'll be worse than THE CERUTTI by any means...but I think at least between those best two.


Link back to all of my projections.