2021 Projection Series - Andrew Knizner


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.

Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Andrew Knizner's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections (minor league numbers on bottom.

The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2020

17 PA - .250/.235/.313/.548

1 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers

1 runs, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS

This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(Best case)

248 PA - .290/.357/.444/.800

11 doubles, 0 triples, 8 homers

32 runs, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS


If Andrew Knizner can play defense behind the plate at all and is hitting like this and only gets 248 PA, I will be saddened by Mike Shildt's roster management unless Yadi is also hitting his THE GOOD projection and is an absolute boss defensively this year.

THE BAD

(worst case)

205 PA - .237/.298/.363/.661

7 doubles, 0 triples, 5 homers

22 runs, 22 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS


So this is a real concern, especially in getting 200ish PA or less for Knizner. I feel like he's a guy who has a timing problem when he's not playing - like many young players.


THE CERUTTI

(my system projection)

225 PA - .264/.329/.403/.732

9 doubles, 0 triples, 6 homers

27 runs, 27 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS

Andrew Knizner's 2021 THE CERUTTI projection is a good glimpse of what we could get from the catcher position this year from Knizner, I feel. This just seems right to me at the major league level. A guy with an above average batting average who is a gap to gap type player who has modest xbh pop but nothing extraordinary.


Link back to all of my projections.