Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Giovanny Gallegos' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
66 games, 74 innings 2.31 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 0.811 WHIP 11.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 5.81 K:BB
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
65 games, 77 innings 2.59 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 0.902 WHIP 12.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 5.74 K:BB
Crazy enough, this is very much similar to (but not quite even as good) as what Gio did last year. So I obviously don't think that Gallegos will be as good as last year...but he'll be darn good.
THE BAD
(worst case)
65 games, 63 2/3 innings 3.14 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.092 WHIP 10.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 4.74 K:BB
I'm going to quote what I said for Flaherty: "For a worst case scenario, this is pretty darn nice, no?!?!?"
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
65 games, 70 innings 2.85 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 0.992 WHIP 11.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 5.22 K:BB
I was very proud of last year’s projection for Giovanny Gallegos calling his breakout season. My system projects more good things for Gallegos in 2020, which makes sense since it added another great season to his data set. If you have access to The Athletic ($), here’s a great article by Joe Schwarz.
Absolutely overpowering. Let's do it again this year, Gio!
Link back to all of my projections.