Cerutti's Projections Check-In at the Halfway Point - The Hitters


Back in February and March, I unveiled my 2019 Projection Series for all of the assumed Cardinals position players and pitchers for the 2019 season. You can click on the link above to go back to any of those individual projections that you would like and even read the primer about my process and how I got into doing this in the first place if you have yet to do so.


At this point in the year, 81 games into the season, I like to check in and see what players are doing compared to my projections of them. Let's start with the hitters. First, here is the projected stats sheet from prior to the season for position players:

Cerutti's 2019 Projections Spreadsheet

When I go through them, I will start with whomever has the most plate appearances and continue down through the list until we are done looking at them. If a player has been better than I expected, the player will be green. If their projection seems to be right on, the player will be yellow. If a player has been worse than I expected, the player will be red. These are all thanks to Nicholas Childress. (The photos are an homage to and based on Cardinalsgifs' prior work with the cover art for individual projections in the offseason.) Onto the analysis:


Paul Goldschmidt

I projected him to be a .291/.397/.531/.928 hitter with a .410 wOBA, 51.5 runs, 17 doubles, 2 triples, 16 homers, 49 RBI, 8 SB, and 2 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 23.3% K rate and 13.9% BB rate. Here is where Goldy is at:


347 PA, .246/.335/.407/.742 with a .321 wOBA (98 wRC+)

45 runs, 7 doubles, 0 triples, 14 homers, 31 RBI

0 SB, 1 CS, 25.6% K rate, 11.2% BB rate


Analysis: I've already written about Goldschmidt's struggles elsewhere in this space. He's really struggling and will need the most ridiculous next 81 games in order to meet the goals I set out for him for a full season. He's the only position player who has played in all 81 games.


Paul DeJong

I projected him to be a .252/.309/.458/.767 hitter with a .332 wOBA, 36 runs, 15 doubles, 0.5 triples, 13 homers, 40.5 RBI, 1 SB, and 1 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 26.9% K rate and 6.0% BB rate. Here is where Pauly D is at:


346 PA, .261/.347/.462/.809 with a .343 wOBA (113 wRC+)

52 runs, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 13 homers, 36 RBI

6 SB, 1 CS, 19.1% K rate, 10.1% BB rate


Analysis: DeJong has played in 80 of the team's 81 games to this point and he has been much better than I had anticipated. He has really taken his game to the next level this year and I'm here for it, man. I alluded to him being able to best my numbers in my write up of him in the offseason, but was merely hopeful it could happen. This is refreshing.


Marcell Ozuna

I projected him to be a .282/.338/.469/.807 hitter with a .350 wOBA, 39 runs, 11.5 doubles, 1.5 triples, 13.5 homers, 48 RBI, 1 SB, and 1 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 19.8% K rate and a 7.4% BB rate. Here is where the Big Bear is at:


326 PA, .259/.331/.515/.846 with a .351 wOBA (118 wRC+)

52 runs, 15 doubles, 0 triples, 20 homers, 62 RBI

8 SB, 1 CS, 20.9% K rate, 9.5% BB rate


Analysis: Ozuna is hitting both better and worse than I thought. His wOBA and OBP are right where I projected. His batting average is way low and his slugging is way high - making his ISO out of this world compared to my projection. So by that mark, he's easily besting my projections - which helps his RBI be quite a bit better as well.


Matt Carpenter

I projected him to be a .252/.375/.484/.859 hitter with a .374 wOBA, 48 runs, 18.5 doubles, 1 triple, 13.5 homers, 36.5 RBI, 1.5 SB, and 1 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 21.2% K rate and a 15.4% BB rate. Here is where the Galveston Grinder is at:


326 PA, .216/.325/.381/.706 with a .308 wOBA (90 wRC+)

42 runs, 12 doubles, 2 triples, 10 homers, 28 RBI

6 SB, 1 CS, 24.5% K rate, 13.5% BB rate


Analysis: Carpenter's K rate and BB rate have both regressed horribly. Not only is he putting less balls in play than I thought he would, he's also hitting worse on the balls in play than I thought he would. This is basically worst case scenario for 2019 Carp - months after signing an extension that seems horribly ill-advised in hindsight.


Kolten Wong

I projected him to be a .258/.342/.393/.736 hitter with a .326 wOBA, 26 runs, 10 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers, 21 RBI, 4.5 SB, and 1.5 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 14.6% K rate and 8.7% BB rate. Here is where KoWo is at:


301 PA, .237/.323/.370/.694 with a .297 wOBA (83 wRC+)

31 runs, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 7 homers, 33 RBI

14 SB, 0 CS, 15.0% K rate, 10.0% BB rate


Analysis: I truly feel like Kolten Wong is hitting about like I thought he would but his BABIP is absolute trash. He is stealing bases at a rate that I love to see and him walking that much more than I thought he would makes for a slightly better kind of hitter than I thought he would be. I'd love to see that BABIP bounce up in the second half and have him balance out the first half with a .279/.365/.412/.777 second half that would get him back to my projections. Note: Wong has also played in 80 of the 81 games.


Yadier Molina

I projected him to be a .272/.323/.425/.747 hitter with a .326 wOBA, 28 runs, 13 doubles, 0.5 triples, 8 homers, 36 RBI, 2.5 SB, and 1.5 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 12.5% K rate and a 5.8% BB rate. Here is where Yadi is at:


266 PA, .266/.293/.377/.670 with a .285 wOBA (76 wRC+)

24 runs, 16 doubles, 0 triples, 4 homers, 35 RBI

4 SB, 0 CS, 12.0% K rate, 3.4% BB rate


Analysis: Molina flat out has not had the same plate discipline he's had in the past. I think part of that is that he's not shown the power he has in previous years and he could be trying to do a little bit too much.


Dexter Fowler

I projected him to be a .237/.341/.401/.741 hitter with a .328 wOBA, 31 runs, 9 doubles, 2.5 triples, 6 homers, 23.5 RBI, 4.5 SB, and 2 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 22.0% K rate and a 12.5% BB rate. Here is where Dex is at:


255 PA, .243/.346/.394/.741 with a .324 wOBA (101 wRC+)

27 runs, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 8 homers, 27 RBI

4 SB, 2 CS, 23.9% K rate, 11.4% BB rate


Analysis: This is maybe the best projection I've ever had at the halfway point. He's completely in line with what I thought. This is spot on and I'll gloat if I want to. (A blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.)


Jose Martinez

I projected him to be a .288/.349/.442/.791 hitter with a .346 wOBA, 24.5 runs, 10 doubles, 0.5 triples, 6 homers, 27.5 RBI, 2 SB, and 1 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 17.6% K rate and an 8.4% BB rate. Here is where Cafecito is:


235 PA, .282/.345/.394/.739 with a .321 wOBA (99 wRC+)

25 runs, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 5 homers, 28 RBI

1 SB, 0 CS, 19.6% K rate, 8.5% BB rate


Analysis: Martinez has been the hitter I thought, minus any power at all. A .112 ISO is not going to help him to play 78 of 81 games in the second half like he did in the first. I had projected a .154 ISO for him and that NEEDS to happen. This team has to find it's power somewhere.


Harrison Bader

I projected him to be a .259/.328/.421/.749 hitter with a .328 wOBA, 36 runs, 10 doubles, 1.5 triples, 8.5 homers, 27 RBI, 8 SB, and 4.5 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 27.1% K rate and 7.2% BB rate. Here is where AyBay is:


211 PA, .208/.324/.376/.700 with a .299 wOBA (85 wRC+)

24 runs, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, 19 RBI

4 SB, 3 CS, 27.5% K rate, 11.4% BB rate


Analysis: Harrison Bader is flat out a lot worse hitter than I expected. My numbers expected him to basically repeat last year. He's nowhere close right now. He's not getting enough balls in play luck (or skill?).


Yairo Munoz

I projected him to be a .256/.304/.382/.686 hitter with a .301 wOBA, 23.5 runs, 9 doubles, 1 triple, 4.5 homers, 24 RBI, 5 SB, and 3 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 20.0% K rate and 5.8% BB rate. Here is where Munoz is:


70 PA, .304/.314/.362/.677 with a .291 wOBA (79 wRC+)

9 runs, 4 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers, 3 RBI

2 SB, 1 CS, 22.9% K rate, 1.4% BB rate


Analysis: Munoz basically is what I thought he would be in terms of OBP, but has come about it with a huge batting average and a minuscule walk rate.


Matt Wieters

I projected him to be a .230/.301/.372/.672 hitter with a .298 wOBA, 8 runs, 3 doubles, 0 triples, 2.5 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and 0 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 19.0% K rate and an 8.6% BB rate. Here is where Wieters is:


68 PA, .222/.265/.397/.662 with a .278 wOBA (71 wRC+)

5 runs, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 3 homers, 10 RBI 1 SB, 1 CS, 30.9% K rate, 4.4% BB rate


Analysis: Wieters has done what a couple other Cardinals have...walking very little and striking out a bit more than I thought he would. Cardinals hitters seem to be a bit undisciplined this year, despite the team not having a terribly high K rate compared to league.


Jedd Gyorko

I projected him to be a .260/.335/.448/.783 hitter with a .342 wOBA, 24.5 runs, 8.5 doubles, 0.5 triples, 8.5 homers, 27 RBI, 1.5 SB and 0.5 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 21.0% K rate and a 9.6% BB rate. Here is where Jerk-O is:


62 PA, .196/.274/.304/.578 with a .256 wOBA (56 wRC+)

5 runs, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 2 homers, 7 RBI

2 SB, 0 CS, 22.6% K rate, 9.7% BB rate


Analysis: Gyorko has been hurt and very ineffective when available.


Tyler O'Neill

I projected him to be a .251/.325/.500/.825 hitter with a .355 wOBA, 31.5 runs, 8.5 doubles, 1 triple, 12 homers, 36 RBI, 4 SB, and 1 CS by the halfway point. I projected a 29.6% K rate and 8.9% BB rate. Here is where TON is:


43 PA, .244/.279/.366/.645 with a .276 wOBA (69 wRC+)

4 runs, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 homer, 4 RBI

0 SB, 0 CS, 48.8% K rate, 4.7% BB rate


Analysis: Much like Gyorko, O'Neill has been unavailable most of the year (IL briefly, AAA mostly) and not effective when up.