Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Jack Flaherty's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
9 starts, 40 1/3 innings, 4.481 IP/GS 4.91 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.215 WHIP 10.934 K/9, 3.570 BB/9, 3.06 K:BB 5-4 team record in his starts
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
29 starts, 177 2/3 innings, 6.132 IP/GS 2.95 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 0.986 WHIP 11.690 K/9, 2.699 BB/9, 3.938 K:BB
This would be the ace that we're hoping for. Nearly 180 innings coming off of a season with just 40 innings. Over 6 innings an outing with nearly a 4.00 K:BB and a WHIP under 1.00. Yes please. Sign me up every day of the week, twice on Sundays.
THE BAD
(worst case)
29 starts, 147 innings, 5.068 IP/GS 3.57 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.193 WHIP 9.661 K/9, 3.265 BB/9, 3.254 K:BB
I love how these projections have Flaherty's "bad" season at as good or better than what he produced in 2020. 2020 was just a strange season. Everyone knows that. Everyone saw Flaherty get treated with kids gloves. Let's hope this is as bad as it gets. Outside of one start, Flaherty was much better than this last year.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
29 starts, 161 2/3 innings, 5.482 IP/GS 3.25 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.085 WHIP 10.627 K/9, 2.968 BB/9, 3.58 K:BB
If all of my projections come true, I foresee the Cardinals going 17-12 in his starts.
So Mr. Flaherty had one terrible, awful, no good, very bad game in 2020. Despite being treated with kids gloves most of the year (not being allowed to throw more than 41 pitches in one start, 64 pitches in a start in which he'd allowed one base runner through 5 innings, and throwing under 85 pitches despite good outcomes in one other start), Jack Flaherty was allowed to pitch 3 innings in a game in which he allowed 9 earned runs. If you take those 3 innings out of Jack Flaherty's 2020 season and the one outing in which he was only allowed to go 1 2/3 innings before getting pulled on his game back from the 17-day COVID break, then he gets the following line instead:
7 starts, 35 1/3 innings (5.05 IP/start)
40 K, 12 BB (10.2 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 3.33 K:BB)
1.02 WHIP, 3.06 ERA
So basically, in all of his "normal starts" that's what he put up. I'll take that for sure.
Link back to all of my projections.