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2021 Projection Series - Giovanny Gallegos

Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.

Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Giovanny Gallegos' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


16 games, 15 innings 3.60 ERA, 2.06 FIP, 0.867 WHIP 12.600 K/9, 2.400 BB/9, 5.25 K:BB

This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.



(best case)

66 games, 66 innings 2.62 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 0.871 WHIP 12.350 K/9, 1.953 BB/9, 5.750 K:BB

Would this surprise anyone? Sure as heck wouldn't surprise me.


(worst case)

55 games, 55 innings

3.17 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.054 WHIP

10.207 K/9, 2.363 BB/9, 4.752 K:BB

Love how my "THE BAD" has him being a freakin' stud. That's basically what these projections have said from the beginning that he'd be and they aren't stopping now.


(my system projection)

60 games, 60 innings 2.88 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 0.958 WHIP 11.227 K/9, 2.148 BB/9, 5.23 K:BB


This would be a very Giovanny Gallegos type year now, wouldn't it?

Link back to all of my projections.


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