Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Tommy Edman's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
181 PA - .267/.298/.355/.653
7 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers
20 runs, 13 RBI, 8 SB, 3 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
413 PA - .292/.341/.433/.774
20 doubles, 2 triples, 10 homers
52 runs, 51 RBI, 13 SB, 5 CS
I truthfully think that Munoz peaked in 2018 and that was a slightly worse OPS than this projection.
THE BAD
(worst case) 341 PA - .239/.283/.356/.639 14 doubles, 1 triples, 7 homers
35 runs, 35 RBI, 9 SB, 4 CS
Munoz was bad last year, but not quite this bad. I don’t see him dropping off this much either, but he’s going to really have to work on his plate discipline a bit in order to get this to not happen. Munoz simply swung a lot more often last year - often at bad pitches. He made more contact last year, as well...but it was WEAK contact. His expected stats each of the last two years were worse than his actual statistics.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
375 PA - .265/.312/.394/.706 17 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers 43 runs, 42 RBI, 11 SB, 5 CS
Yairo Munoz had a rough 2019 season. First of all, he only got to play just over half of the time of the previous season, despite getting better defensively. Why? Because his batting average dropped 9 points? No. Because his on base skills dropped 52 points? YEP! That’s it. Not only that but his slugging dropped 58 points as well. His OPS went from an OBP-heavy .763 to a nothing-heavy .653. Here’s the scary part on Munoz. He is seen as a good contact hitter and that’s why he is seen to be able to play in this league. The problem is his eye.
Do you know who led the Cardinals in chase rate this year? Not Tyler O’Neill’s very bad 35.8%. Nope. Not Yadier Molina’s even worse 38.0%. Nope. Yairo Munoz chased 44.5% (that’s just over 4 out of every 9 pitches) outside of the strike zone this year. He just can’t stop swinging. That’s why his K rate is low. Not because he hits everything, but that he SWINGS at everything, and that’s why his stats are low as well.
My projections see a fairly decent improvement, but not even to where Matt Carpenter was last year, which puts Munoz back in the minors in my estimation.
Link back to all of my projections.