Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections. Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Rangel Ravelo's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
43 PA - .205/.256/.410/.666 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 homers 4 runs, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case) 385 PA - .310/.395/.474/.870 21 doubles, 1 triple, 11 homers 52 runs, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
Ravelo’s upside is HUGE. The Cardinals should let him play any corner spot on the diamond (except 1st) if he hits like this. I’m being slightly hyperbolic with that last statement, but not completely. That’s a downright peak Allen Craig hitting line right there.
THE BAD
(worst case)
318 PA - .253/.331/.342/.673
9 doubles, 0 triples, 5 homers
35 runs, 38 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS
Would this surprise anyone really? Not I. I don’t think he’ll be this bad with how well he hit the ball last year, but I’ve seen clips of him at his best in the minors...not him at his worst. And honestly, the guy had a cup o' joe at 27 for the first time...there’s been some downs in the minors at this point.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection) 350 PA - .282/.365/.431/.796 17 doubles, 1 triple, 9 homers 52 runs, 56 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS
So my guess is either Austin Dean or Rangel Ravelo will make the roster, but not both. These two have similar OPS projections from my system, as you’ve now seen. I think defensively, the Cardinals can only carry one of these two on the roster as they won’t be subbing in for Paul Goldschmidt very often (especially if Carpenter is hitting and can move to first on those days off to shore up the left side of the infield defensively). They also aren’t great in the corner outfield either. Basically, they’d both be glorified pinch hitters for the most part.
Link back to all of my projections.