Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Paul DeJong's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
664 PA - .233/.318/.444/.762
31 doubles, 1 triple, 30 homers
97 runs, 78 RBI, 9 SB, 5 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case) 660 PA - .273/.346/.509/.855
36 doubles, 1 triple, 33 homers
101 runs, 96 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS
I'll explain why shortly, but (not gonna lie) I actually expect this to be closer to what he does in 2020 that THE CERUTTI. A good solid mix of the two, if nothing else.
THE BAD
(worst case) 545 PA - .223/.290/.416/.705
25 doubles, 1 triple, 23 homers
68 runs, 65 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS
I truly believe it will take another hand/wrist/leg/oblique injury to have DeJong do this in his age 26 season. If DeJong does this without an injury, the Cardinals are in serious trouble.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projections)
600 PA - .248/.319/.462/.782
30 doubles, 1 triple, 28 homers
83 runs, 79 RBI, 5 SB, 3 CS
Paul DeJong came up in 2017 (at age 23) and hit .285/.325/.532/.857 over ⅔ of a season. He then (at age 24) hit .260/.351/.473/.824 over ¼ of a season to start 2018 before getting his hand broken by a pitch. He then (at age 25) hit .317/.407/.546/.962 in about ⅓ of a season before getting hit in the hand with a pitch again. I'm thinking, personally, a slash line of .265/.340/.485/.825 is gonna be pretty close.
All of that is to say that I truly feel confident that Paul DeJong is going to be closer to THE GOOD projections than my system’s actual projection for Paul DeJong this year.
Link back to all of my projections.