Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Matt Wieters' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
183 PA - .214/.268/.435/.702
4 doubles, 0 triples, 11 homers
15 runs, 27 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case) 303 PA - .254/.329/.424/.753 11 doubles, 0 triples, 11 homers 30 runs, 41 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
This is why you play Andrew Knizner instead of Matt Wieters. This is what is expected of him and it’s about the same value he provided last year.
Again, if this is quite possibly the BEST you’ll see out of Wieters in 2020, then unless he is Yadier Molina-esque defensively as compared to Knizner, then the Cardinals need to let Andrew Knizner play.
THE BAD
(worst case) 250 PA - .207/.274/.332/.606 7 doubles, 0 triples, 7 homers 20 runs, 27 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
Oof. Yep. That's all I have to say. "Oof."
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection) 275 PA - .230/.302/.386/.688 10 doubles, 0 triples, 9 homers 25 runs, 34 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
The good news: Matt Wieters probably had the best backup catcher season (min. 100 PA) out of a Cardinals’ backup catcher since...maybe 2012 Tony Cruz or 2011 Gerald Laird.
The bad news, in two parts. 1) It’s not a high bar, and 2) He still had a NEGATIVE fWAR on the season.
The Cardinals decided to sign him back anyway, despite having Andrew Knizner 1) in their system, and 2) ready to go.
Link back to all of my projections.