Cerutti's Projections Analysis 2019: the pitchers

Back in February and March, I unveiled my 2019 Projection Series for all of the assumed Cardinals position players and pitchers for the 2019 season. You can click on the link above to go back to any of those individual projections that you would like and even read the primer about my process and how I got into doing this in the first place if you have yet to do so.


I like to do a self-analysis when the season is over to see how I did. I did the position players last time, so let us now continue on with the pitchers. First, here is the projected stats sheet from prior to the season for them:

When I go through them, I will start with whomever has the most innings pitched and continue down through the list until we are done looking at them. If a player has been better than I expected, the player will be green. If their projection seems to be right on, the player will be yellow. If a player has been worse than I expected, the player will be red.


The art is all thanks to Nicholas Childress. (The photos are an homage to and based on Cardinalsgifs' prior work with the cover art for individual projections in the offseason.) Onto the analysis (note: after ERA, I am going to put the average of xFIP, FIP, and SIERA in parenthesis):


Jack Flaherty

I projected him to be a 182 IP, 3.46 ERA (3.60), 1.280 WHIP, 3.00 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 76 runs allowed, 198 K, and 66 BB, with 20 HR allowed. Here is where JFlare finished:


196 1/3 IP, 5.95 IP/GS

2.75 ERA (3.46), 0.97 WHIP

62 runs allowed, 231 K, 55 BB, with 25 HR allowed


Analysis: Goodness. Flaherty was red at the halfway point and is now easily green. Like...fabulous. His innings were a bit higher than projected, so of course his Ks were up, but his BB were down and his runs allowed were down from my estimation. Very nice looking stats here. He was the ACE of the staff in the second half, easily.


Miles MIkolas

I projected him to be a 206 IP, 2.71 ERA (3.08), 1.109 WHIP, 5.24 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 71 runs allowed, 173 K, and 33 BB with 16 HR allowed. Here is where Mik finished:


184 IP, 5.75 IP/GS

4.16 ERA (4.27), 1.22 WHIP

90 runs allowed, 144 K, 32 BB, 27 HR allowed


Analysis: Mikolas started 32 games and really wasn't a bad pitcher. He just wasn't anywhere close to last year and finished worse than I thought he would. His HR allowed was what really doomed him, I feel.


Dakota Hudson

I projected him to be a 170 IP, 3.07 ERA (3.65), 1.482 WHIP, 1.58 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 66 runs allowed, 112 K, and 71 BB with 5 HR allowed. Here is where Hudson finished:


174 2/3 IP, 5.46 IP/GS

3.35 ERA (4.93), 1.41 WHIP

80 runs allowed, 136 K, 86 BB, 22 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Hudson struck out more than I thought he would but also walked more than I thought he would. The 22 HR allowed (instead of 5) is what balooned his runs allowed, but he went about the right number of innings at the same whip and exact K:BB I projected. I'm gonna go with yellow - I think I was right on.


Adam Wainwright

I projected him to be a 122 IP, 4.28 ERA (3.80), 1.402 WHIP, 2.54 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 62 runs allowed, 104 K, and 41 BB, with 12 HR allowed. Here is where Waino finished:


171 2/3 IP, 5.54 IP/GS

4.19 ERA (4.36), 1.43 WHIP

83 runs allowed, 153 K, 64 BB, with 22 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. (This is the exact same write up as the halfway point, minus the part I'll bracket.) With the exception of the amount of innings pitched, this one is looking pretty close, but seeing as though he's exceeded where I thought he would be by about [40%] of the innings, I gotta give it to Waino and say that he's been better than advertised, even with the explosion of homers.


Michael Wacha

I projected him to be a 133 IP, 4.13 ERA (3.83), 1.353 WHIP, 2.48 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 68 runs allowed, 119 K, and 48 BB, with 14 HR allowed. Here is where Wacha finished:


126 2/3 IP, 4.75 IP/GS (as a starter)

4.76 ERA (5.61), 1.56 WHIP

71 runs allowed, 104 K, 55 BB, with 126 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Wacha had a worse WHIP, worse ERA, more runs allowed despite less innings than I projected. He gave up WAY more homers than I thought he would even (second on the team despite throwing the least innings as a starter by nearly 50 innings). Just RED. Period.


Giovanny Gallegos

I projected him to be a 60 IP, 2.85 ERA (2.46), 1.100 WHIP, 4.88 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 21 runs allowed, 78 K, and 16 BB, with 5 HR allowed. Here is where Gallegos finished:


74 IP

2.31 ERA (3.05), 0.81 WHIP

19 runs allowed, 93 K, 16 BB, with 9 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. Gallegos had a better ERA than I thought he would, in more innings. He also had a higher K:BB and better WHIP than I thought he would. Tempted to go with Yellow because I called him being the best pitcher in the bullpen. However, he's even exceeded my expectations.


John Brebbia

I projected him to be a 60 IP, 3.60 ERA (3.62), 1.250 WHIP, 3.94 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 25 runs allowed, 67 K, and 17 BB, with 8 HR allowed. Here is where Brebbs finished:


72 2/3 IP

3.59 ERA (3.13), 1.18 WHIP

31 runs allowed, 87 K, 27 BB, with 6 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Brebbia was Brebbia this year. Love having this guy around!


John Gant

I projected him to be a 100 IP, 3.51 ERA (3.83), 1.350 WHIP, 2.35 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 46 runs allowed, 94 K, and 40 BB, with 10 HR allowed. Here is where Gant finished:


66 1/3 IP

3.66 ERA (3.73), 1.28 WHIP

29 runs allowed, 60 K, 34 BB, with 4 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Gant was green at the halfway point, but just ran out of steam. His K:BB dropped precipitously and his ERA jumped about to where I thought it would be and his WHIP jumped about 50% higher than it previously was. Gant was still very good this year, but didn’t get the starts to get to the 100 IP I had projected.


Tyler Webb

NO IMAGE

I did not project Webb to make the team. He finished with the 9th most innings on the squad.


Andrew Miller

I projected him to be a 60 IP, 2.85 ERA (2.56), 1.033 WHIP, 4.35 K:BB pitcher. also had expected 21 runs allowed, 87 K, and 20 BB, with 5 HR allowed. Here is where Miller finished:


54 2/3 IP

4.45 ERA (5.19), 1.32 WHIP

32 runs allowed, 70 K, 27 BB, with 11 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Miller's turing into a LOOGY and that was basically worst case scenario for me. He was even worse in the second half.


Daniel Ponce de Leon

I projected him to be a 60 IP, 2.85 ERA (3.19), 1.250 WHIP, 2.37 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 24 runs, 64 K, and 27 BB, with 3 HR allowed. Here is where PDL finished:


48 2/3 IP

3.70 ERA (4.41), 1.27 WHIP

21 runs allowed, 52 K, 26 BB, with 6 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. He was about who I thought he would be but didn’t have the opportunity. With the HR his ERA + FIP were up a bit, but about what we thought in these parts.


Carlos Martinez

Note: I projected Carlos Martinez to be a starter this year prior to the end of spring training, so these stats will look very different.


I projected him to be a 210 IP, 3.34 ERA (3.75), 1.271 WHIP, 2.51 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 87 runs, 208 K, and 83 BB, with 20 HR allowed. Here is where CMart finished (out of the pen):


48 1/3 IP

3.17 ERA (2.86), 1.18 WHIP

18 runs allowed, 53 K, 18 BB, with 2 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. He really did a great job as the closer for the most part. He limited homers and walks and kept runs off the board for the most part, outside of a couple of outings. Can’t be green because he didn’t start.


Dominic Leone

I projected him to be a 60 IP, 3.90 ERA (3.91), 1.350 WHIP, 2.86 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 28 runs, 63 K, and 22 BB, with 8 HR allowed. Here is where Leone finished:


40 2/3 IP

5.53 ERA (5.45), 1.50 WHIP

28 runs allowed, 46 K, 22 BB, with 9 HR allowed


Analysis: Red. Leone just allowed so many more hits than I thought he would and so many going for home runs (slightly higher HR number in only ⅔ of the innings projected). Not a good combo. Oof.


Jordan Hicks

I projected him to be a 70 IP, 3.86 ERA (3.91), 1.657 WHIP, 1.55 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 35 runs allowed, 65 K, and 42 BB, with 2 HR allowed. Here is where Hicks finished after getting injured in the first half:


28 2/3 IP

3.14 ERA (3.12), 0.94 WHIP

10 runs allowed, 31 K, 11 BB, with 2 HR allowed


Analysis: Green. Hicks was better than my projections thought he would be in the first half. Remember, Hicks was where I warned that my projection doesn't do a good job on some things and that I personally thought he'd be better than my system did. God's speed coming back, sir!


Ryan Helsley

NO IMAGE

I projected him to be a 60 IP, 3.45 ERA (3.12), 1.383 WHIP, 2.81 K:BB pitcher. I also had expected 27 runs allowed, 73 K, and 26 BB, with 5 HR allowed. Here is where Ryan Helsley finished:


36 2/3 IP

2.95 ERA (4.22), 1.25 WHIP

13 runs allowed, 32 K, 12 BB, with 5 HR allowed


Analysis: Yellow. Helsley was about what I thought he would be out of the pen. Slightly better perhaps?