2021 Projection Series - Harrison Bader


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.


Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Tommy Edman's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2020

125 PA - .226/.336/.443/.779

7 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers

21 runs, 11 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS


This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(Best case)

495 PA - .260/.356/.462/.818

22 doubles, 4 triples, 19 homers

83 runs, 55 RBI, 16 SB, 4 CS


This is what everyone in the world wants out of Bader, no? In less than 500 PA getting 25+ doubles and triples and nearly 20 homers to go along with an above league average batting average and 15+ steals? This is quite ideal. If he hits like this 1) it's because he was platooned perfectly or 2) he needs to start every game he's healthy for!


THE BAD

(worst case)

409 PA - .213/.300/.378/.678

15 doubles, 3 triples, 13 homers

56 runs, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 3 CS


This is, um, more what most people expect out of Bader, despite him having one season nearly but not quite this bad.


THE CERUTTI

(my system projection)

450 PA - .237/.330/420/.750

19 doubles, 3 triples, 15 homers

68 runs, 45 RBI, 14 SB, 4 CS

My projections for Bader have been quite consistent the last three seasons.


2019 Projection: .259/.328/.421/.749

2020 Projection: .246/.332/.422/.754

2021 Projection: .237/.330/.420/.750


The thing is, that should be good enough to earn him adequate playing time. But that wouldn't be enough for much of the BFIB. I guess maybe we don't like Whiteyball and defense as much as we claim.


Link back to all of my projections.