2021 Projection Series - Genesis Cabrera


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.


Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Giovanny Gallegos' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2020

19 games, 22 1/3 innings 2.42 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.164 WHIP 12.896 K/9, 6.448 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(best case)

66 games, 66 innings 4.43 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.321 WHIP 11.678 K/9, 4.130 BB/9, 2.571 K:BB


This one comes down to sample in the majors and sample in the low minors. My projections have not yet caught up to Genesis Cabrera. He beat this ERA last year. He beat this WHIP last year. He beat this K/9 last year.


THE BAD

(worst case)

55 games, 55 innings

5.36 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.598 WHIP

9.651 K/9, 4.997 BB/9, 2.125 K:BB


Similarly, the BB/9 was WORSE in 2020. The K:BB was worse. The other numbers weren't this bad but it could definitely go this way.


THE CERUTTI

(my system projection)

60 games, 60 innings 4.87 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.453 WHIP

10.616 K/9, 4.543 BB/9, 2.34 K:BB

I think the range of possibilities for Genesis Cabrera are literally larger than any other player I've projected so far this year. I don't know what to think about him. I'm going with THE GOOD or better, but I could seriously see it being worse than THE BAD as well.


Link back to all of my projections.