Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Tommy Edman's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
349 PA - .304/.350/.500/.850
17 doubles, 7 triples, 11 homers
59 runs, 36 RBI, 15 SB, 1 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
413 PA - .296/.353/.446/.799
19 doubles, 6 triples, 8 homers
62 runs, 41 RBI, 19 SB, 3 CS
Even THE GOOD projection doesn’t have Tommy Edman as good in the slugging department as 2019’s actual Edman partial season. The projection just doesn't believe in it. What can I find to make this a reality? Well, with the new ball in AAA last year, Tommy Edman hit .305/.356/.513/.869 at AAA before coming up and hitting .300/.350/.500/.850 at the major league level with the major league balls.
THE BAD
(worst case)
341 PA - .242/.294/.322/.616
9 doubles, 3 triples, 4 homers
42 runs, 28 RBI, 13 SB, 2 CS
Edman has hit better than this every year at the upper minors level. I’m really not sure that he would ever be this low in 2020. Period.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
375 PA - .268/.323/.402/.726
16 doubles, 5 triples, 7 homers
51 runs, 34 RBI, 15 SB, 3 CS
Tommy Edman was fantastic for the Cardinals last year, especially compared to what he would have been projected to do. Tommy Edman was a .300/.350/.500/.850 guy last year. If the whole team hit like Tommy Edman, the St. Louis Cardinals likely win the World Series - or at least very closely approximate what the Astros/Nationals/Dodgers really were. Period. That’s how good Edman was. The problem is, Edman only has 349 plate appearances in the majors. He has 1,652 plate appearances in the minors as well and those plate appearances are not nearly as impressive as his 349 in the majors. My projections are going to take those into account as well, which is why this is what it is.
I think he'll likely be somewhere between THE CERUTTI and THE GOOD. Probably. A dip down to THE CERUTTI wouldn't be the end of the world for him with his speed and defense.
Link back to all of my projections.