2020 Projection Series - Edmundo Sosa


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.


Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Edmundo Sosa's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

Edmundo Sosa MAJOR league stats

Edmundo Sosa MINOR league stats

The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2019

10 PA - ..250/.400/.250/.650

0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers

2 runs, 0 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS


This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(Best case)

385 PA - .280/.325/.417/.742

17 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers

54 runs, 41 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS


This is about the top of my expectations for a first full rookie year were he forced into the 385 PA that I have allotted for him here. That's not likely playing time in my mind, but is about the most I could see him taking.


THE BAD

(worst case)

318 PA - .229/.272/.301/.572

7 doubles, 1 triples, 4 homers

36 runs, 28 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS


This is what would happen if he's forced into 300+ PA at shortstop, if his power doesn't translate to Busch III or the major league level, and if pitchers figure that out in a hurry and just challenge him pitch after pitch.


THE CERUTTI

(my system projection)

350 PA - .254/.300/.379/.679

14 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers

44 runs, 34 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS

Edmundo Sosa has long been one of my favorite prospects. It truly is because of that 2013-2015 stretch 5+ seasons ago now in which he was in the Dominican League and dominated offensively (as a slick fielding shortstop) and then had a bit of a down year in 2014 while acclimating to the United States before basically being (at 19 years old in the Appy League) exactly what he was in the Dominican League at 17 two years prior in 2015. Of course, the wheels kinda came off of the offense a bit as he rose through the minors and it took him another few years until he finally had another good offensive season in the minors last year at the AAA level (although the "good" season last year was just a 91 wRC+, which is "good" because he's a shortstop.


I truly hope that he can hit for THE GOOD projection above given that playing time or we need to be getting Ozzie level defense out of the above average defensive shortstop.


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