Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Adam Wainwright's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
31 starts, 171 2/3 innings, 5.538 IP/GS 4.19 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.427 WHIP 8.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.39 K:BB 19-12 team record in Wainwright starts
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
24 starts, 140 innings, 5.833 IP/GS 3.74 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.28 WHIP 8.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.72 K:BB
This would be a marked improvement over his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons shown above, so I would welcome this with open arms. Of course, that means it's likely not happening. The other item of note here is that he only gets 24 starts. That's what my projection has in it, so this shows what THE GOOD would be in the same amount of starts as the actual projection.
THE BAD
(worst case)
24 starts, 115 2/3 innings, 4.82 IP/GS 4.53 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.55 WHIP 7.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.2 K:BB
Adam Wainwright really doesn't have that broad a range of outcomes in my projections. I don't know if that's because he has so many career innings to fall back on or what. However, look at those last 3 years. The consistency is there. The K:BB are nearly identical. The FIPs are nearly identical. Makes sense mathematically.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
24 starts, 127 1/3 innings, 5.3 IP/GS 4.12 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.41 WHIP 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.47 K:BB
If all of my projections come true, I foresee the Cardinals going 13-11 in his starts.
Adam Wainwright still mixes his pitches as well as many - he throws four pitches at least 13.5% of the time and none more than 37% of the time. Last year, he allowed a huge hard hit rate of nearly 40%. His barrel % and exit velocity allowed were both over league average. His K% was below league average and his typically fantastic walk rate jumped. That said, he was able to pitch over 170 innings and have his best ERA (4.19) in a full season since 2014! It was for sure a mixed bag season. I foresee more of that in 2020.
Link back to all of my projections.