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How Did I Do On My Projections In 2021?

The 2021 St. Louis Cardinals season has come to a close and that means that I get to check in on how my projections did on both the hitters side and the pitchers side of things for this season.

I’ll talk about hitters first. The order is simply starting with the players that received the most plate appearances and going through anyone that received at least 125 plate appearances - all the way down through Justin Williams. I did not project either Lars Nootbaar (124 PA) or Jose Rondon (90 PA). Any other position players not listed did not even get as many plate appearances as Adam Wainwright.

Tommy Edman

2021 Actual

691 plate appearances


91 runs, 56 RBI

41 doubles, 3 triples, 11 homers

30 SB, 5 CS

2021 Projection

600 plate appearances


87 runs, 58 RBI

25 doubles, 7 triples, 13 homers

22 SB, 5 CS

Really the only place that Tommy Edman exceeded my expectations was in hitting doubles and stolen bases. In everything else, he was below what I had expected him to be, in some places quite a bit. Overall a semi-disappointing year from him, to me. As a leadoff hitter, you just have to get on base more than a .308 clip. This is fine if you like his defense at 2nd base and you just allow him to hit 8th or 9th in a lineup that ended up as good as the Cardinals’ lineup ended.

As far as my projection goes, I give this a miss. I was too high on Edman.

Paul Goldschmidt

2021 Actual

679 plate appearances


102 runs, 99 RBI

36 doubles, 2 triples, 31 homers

12 SB, 0 CS

2021 Projection

650 plate appearances


91 runs, 83 RBI

30 doubles, 2 triples, 29 homers

5 SB, 2 CS

Goldschmidt lived up to the hype and more this year. He showed that he could accomplish at Busch Stadium what he needed to in order to truly be that middle of the order bat that absolutely excels at any ball park. He’s living up to the contract. Let’s hope this continues another couple of seasons at least!

As far as my projection goes, I’ll call this a direct hit!

Nolan Arenado

2021 Actual

653 plate appearances


81 runs, 105 RBI

34 doubles, 3 triples, 34 homers

2 SB, 0 CS

2021 Projection

650 plate appearances


94 runs, 106 RBI

33 doubles, 2 triples, 35 homers

2 SB, 2 CS

Arenado lived up to the hype as it pertains to his slugging potential. His ISO was nearly exactly what I projected it to be, despite the move from Coors to Busch. That amazes me. What I didn’t expect was his batting average to fall of by 40 points from what was expected and his OBP to fall off 51 points from what was expected. That’s huge. He went from an all around superstar at the plate to a slugger with a glove. That’s not BAD. That’s also not GOOD - compared to expectations!

As far as my projections go, I’ll call this one a very small failure on my part as he dropped in average and on base (and thus runs scored and slugging percentage) but was fine on extra bases and isolated power (and thus RBI).

Dylan Carlson

2021 Actual

619 plate appearances


79 runs, 65 RBI

31 doubles, 4 triples, 18 homers

2 SB, 1 CS

2021 Projection

600 plate appearances


79 runs, 66 RBI

27 doubles, 8 triples, 19 homers

13 SB, 7 CS

Dylan Carlson hit 34 points better and OBP’d 30 points better than what I expected. This directly led to a slugging percentage 29 points higher than I expected. He also ran a bit less than I expected. This was such a successful campaign for the rookie. It wasn’t looking great for the longest time, but it really came together for him in chunks.

As far as my projections go, I’m going to give myself a very small failure on my part on this one, with this being the opposite of Arenado’s. My projections didn’t give Carlson enough credit for his ability to find a way on - despite getting his Isolated Power and his PA, runs, RBI almost exactly correct.

Tyler O’Neill

2021 Actual

537 plate appearances


89 runs, 80 RBI

26 doubles, 2 triples, 34 homers

15 SB, 4 CS

2021 Projection

450 plate appearances


69 runs, 67 RBI

15 doubles, 1 triple, 26 homers

7 SB, 1 CS

Tyler O’Neill lived up to his nickname of TON this year. He was a TON for opposition pitchers to deal with and far exceeded anything I thought he was doing in 2021 after his 2019-20 campaigns. He’s basically been (this year) what we all hoped he would be in a full season when given a chance. He was finally given that chance.

As far as my projections go, this was a massive failure on my projections part, especially considering that even my “THE GOOD” projection (.264/.335/.520/.855)was well shy of these totals.

Yadier Molina

2021 Actual

473 plate appearances


45 runs, 66 RBI

19 doubles, 0 triples, 11 homers

3 SB, 0 CS

2021 Projection

475 plate appearances


46 runs, 61 RBI

19 doubles, 0 triples, 13 homers

4 SB, 1 CS

Yadi had a bit worse season at the plate than I thought, but not horrendously. He had trouble getting on base (via hit or walk) compared to what I thought but basically did what I thought from a power standpoint. He was better at driving in runs than I thought, however, due to hitting well situationally.

As far as my projections go, this was RIGHT ON.

Paul DeJong

2021 Actual

402 plate appearances


44 runs, 45 RBI

10 doubles, 1 triples, 19 homers

4 SB, 1 CS

2021 Projection

550 plate appearances


74 runs, 71 RBI

26 doubles, 1 triple, 21 homers

5 SB, 3 CS

So, what to say here? I feel like next year is the year my system finally sours on Paul DeJong. This was an abysmal season at the plate offensively for him. Yes, he was nearly a 20 homer guy in ⅔ of a season...but that’s all he was. He was relegated, rightfully, to a bench role - even in the playoffs. I’m not saying a bounce back can’t happen - look at TON’s 2020-21 jump.

As far as my projections go, this was a huge miss in the bad direction for DeJong.

Harrison Bader

2021 Actual

401 plate appearances


45 runs, 50 RBI

21 doubles, 1 triple, 16 homers

9 SB, 4 CS

2021 Projection

450 plate appearances


68 runs, 45 RBI

19 doubles, 3 triples, 15 homers

14 SB, 4 CS

So my projection for Bader is fairly close, but I got there in the wrong way. Bader really changed his hitting profile a bit this year. That threw me for a loop a bit. His isolated slugging was slightly higher than I thought it would be, but his 30 points higher batting average really is what jumped his slugging. He actually got on base less than I thought he would given his batting average, as he sacrificed seeing pitches and walking for hitting the pitches he could quite well. I like that transformation as it helped his average and his slugging. It didn’t completely discount his OBP either.

As far as my projection goes, I give it a fairly close - but for the wrong reasons.

Edmundo Sosa

2021 Actual

326 plate appearances


39 runs, 27 RBI

8 doubles, 4 triples, 6 homers

4 SB, 4 CS

2021 Projection

150 plate appearances


19 runs, 15 RBI

6 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers

1 SB, 1 CS

So my projection for Sosa was much like my projection for Bader. He was happier to swing away (or get hit by way too many pitches), giving him a slugging about what I thought but an AVG higher than I thought - in his case leading to a bit higher OBP with all those HBP. He also got over twice as many plate appearances as I projected - partly because he hit fairly well, partly because he showed out with the glove at short, and mostly because DeJong failed miserably at the plate.

As far as projections go, I’ll give myself a pass on this one as his hike in average came with the hike in playing time.

Matt Carpenter

2021 Actual

249 plate appearances


18 runs, 21 RBI

11 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers

2 SB, 0 CS

2021 Projection

250 plate appearances


34 runs, 28 RBI

12 doubles, 1 triple, 9 homers

2 SB, 0 CS

So what we feared as worse case scenario was the actual scenario. Carpenter’s offensive abilities have fallen off the cliff and since offensive abilities were what he hung his hat on, he only got the number of PA I projected rather than earning more by being a .772 OPS guy again.

As far as projection go, we knew these projections were going to be too high for Carpenter; but these projections were high enough above Carpenter’s actual that we can call this a resounding failure on their part.

Andrew Knizner

2021 Actual

185 plate appearances


18 runs, 9 RBI

7 doubles, 0 triples, 1 homer

0 SB, 0 CS

2021 Projection

225 plate appearances


26 runs, 27 RBI

9 doubles, 0 triples, 6 homers

1 SB, 0 CS

Oof. I am more concerned about this one than Carpenter’s. Has Knizner just hit the backup catcher wall where he just has stopped improving? I sure hope not, but with Yadi out there he’s not really given any chances is he?

As far as projections go, I missed badly. Period.

Justin Williams

2021 Actual

137 plate appearances


10 runs, 11 RBI

0 doubles, 0 triples, 4 homers

0 SB, 1 CS

2021 Projection

200 plate appearances


20 runs, 25 RBI

8 doubles, 0 triples, 5 homers

2 SB, 1 CS

I don’t want to be the “I told you so” guy here, but I think I was the low man on Justin Williams prior to the season starting and my projections far outdid his actual production. I’d say this is the worst performance by a Cardinal position player in 2021.

As far as my projections go, I was on the right track compared to others I talked to, but still was way off.

I’ll talk about pitchers second, then. The order is simply starting with the players that received the most innings pitched and going through anyone that threw at least 20 innings (that includes Junior Fernandez at the bottom end, as he threw 20 ⅓ innings). That excludes 11 players, including Matt Carpenter’s brilliant 1⅓ innings in relief.

Adam Wainwright

2021 Actual

32 games, 32 starts

206 ⅓ innings (6.45 per start)

3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.66 FIP

7.59 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 3.48 K:BB

7.33 H/9, 0.92 HR/9

2021 Projection

27 games, 27 starts

151 ⅔ innings (5.62 per start)

3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.01 FIP

8.00 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 2.72 K:BB

8.85 H/9, 1.05 HR/9

Adam Wainwright was flat out fantastic this year. If he doesn’t get down ballot Cy Young votes, then that award will mean nothing this year.

As far as projections go, Waino took my projections to the woodshed and beat them like the copy machine in Office Space.

Kwang-Hyun Kim

2021 Actual

27 games, 21 starts

106 ⅔ innings (4.60 per start)

3.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4.34 FIP

6.75 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, 2.05 K:BB

8.27 H/9, 1.01 HR/9

2021 Projection

23 games, 23 starts

126 innings (5.48 per start)

3.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.53 FIP

8.02 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 3.09 K:BB

9.90 H/9, 0.86 HR/9

So this is where you’re going to see a deep and disturbing trend form in all of this pitching data. First of all, 106 ⅔ IP was our second highest of the season?!?!? 21 starts was the most we got out of anyone but Wainwright? UGH. No wonder we lost...wait, what? We only lost 72 games? Jesus, Mike Shildt for president! Wait what? Nevermind.

The deep and disturbing trend is what you all expected. The BBs and HBPs. I did not include HBPs here, but I’ll just say that I projected 72 for the team. If I remember correctly the team hit that many by the end of April. OK, they only hit 85 for the year, but it felt like so much more. So I projected a high total for them, but not nearly as high as they got (18% higher than my projection).

As far as projections go, this one missed on Kim badly. While Kim didn’t give up nearly as many hits as I thought he would, he gave up more homers, struck out a significant amount fewer batters and walked a significant amount greater batters, while allowing more homers. That leads to a worse FIP and this time around led to a worse ERA.

Carlos Martinez

2021 Actual

16 games, 16 starts

82 ⅓ innings (5.15 per start)

6.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.76 FIP

6.23 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, 1.58 K:BB

8.42 H/9, 0.87 HR/9

2021 Projections

28 games, 28 starts

167 innings (5.96 per start)

4.00 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.88 FIP

8.95 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 2.34 K:BB

8.56 H/9, 0.85 HR/9

Carlos Martinez pitched about as I expected, except for strikeouts and runs allowed, honestly. Well, the whole pesky pitching half of the innings and barely more than half of the games started thing as well...darn injuries and relative ineffectiveness.

As far as projections go, this was a dead on hit!

Giovanny Gallegos

2021 Actual

73 games, 0 starts

80 ⅓ innings

3.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.75 FIP

10.64 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 4.75 K:BB

5.71 H/9, 0.67 HR/9

2021 Projection

60 games, 0 starts

60 innings

2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.76 FIP

11.23 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 5.23 K:BB

6.47 H/9, 0.89 HR/9

Yeah, Gallegos was 4th on the staff and 2nd on the staff in terms of players likely being brought back for 2022 in innings pitched in the majors during the 2021 regular season. Yep. Wow.

Also, in some ways Gallegos was better than expected and in some ways worse. Quite amazing.

As far as projections go, this was a hit!

Jack Flaherty

2021 Actual

17 games, 15 starts

78 ⅓ innings (5.09 per start)

3.22 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4.22 FIP

9.77 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 3.27 K:BB

6.55 H/9, 1.38 HR/9

2021 Projection

29 games, 29 starts

161 ⅔ innings (5.57 per start)

3.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.58 FIP

10.63 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 3.58 K:BB

6.80 H/9, 1.13 HR/9

Jack Flaherty was as good as advertised when healthy this year. Jack Flaherty was healthy for about 2.5 months of a 6 month season. Dangit. What a gut punch that was, especially given that we know that the 2nd and 3rd pitchers by innings didn’t even add up to Wainwright’s and they aren’t being kept around for next season.

As far as projections go, I don’t know if I’ll ever be more right than this on a per innings basis projection in my life. Yay me!

John Gant

2021 Actual

25 games, 14 starts

76 ⅓ innings (4.62 per start)

3.42 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.12 FIP

6.60 K/9, 6.60 BB/9, 1.00 K:BB

7.55 H/9, 0.71 HR/9

2021 Projection

40 games, 15 starts

100 innings (5.00 per start)

3.29 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.75 FIP

8.15 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, 1.90 K:BB

7.53 H/9, 0.65 HR/9

Speaking of not being kept around for next season...John Gant everybody. Man, my projections had a real chance of being really close if Gant could have simply struck out about ⅓ of the people that he walked, lol. If he could have simply gotten more swinging strikes by being around the zone that’d have been great.

As far as projections go, I’ll give myself a push. He started about as many games as I thought for the Cardinals but got traded before he could throw enough in relief to make up the innings difference. The reason he didn’t - and the reason he got traded - is because he couldn’t throw strikes. So I missed the Ks and BBs by a lot. However, I nailed the ERA, nailed the H/9, and nailed the HR/9. Basically all of the in play stuff I got and all of the balls not in play I screwed up.

Alex Reyes

2021 Actual

69 games, 0 starts

72 ⅓ innings

3.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.40 FIP

11.82 K/9, 6.47 BB/9, 1.83 K:BB

5.72 H/9, 1.12 HR/9

2021 Projection

60 games, 0 starts

60 innings

4.40 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 3.54 FIP

13.15 K/9, 6.36 BB/9, 2.07 K:BB

7.50 H/9, 0.76 BBHR/9

If you’d have told me at the beginning of the year that Alex Reyes was going to have the 7th most innings on the staff, I’d have guessed we’re winning 100 games. Honestly, though, if you’d have told me I nailed his BB/9, I’d have guessed that he’d have thrown half this many innings.

As far as projections go, I have a mixed report on this one. I thought he would do worse on balls in play but strike out more people. He outpitched my WHIP, which allowed him to outpitch my ERA. And thank goodness he outpitched my ERA instead of FIP and not the other way around...because we needed run prevention and FIP doesn’t do that if we’re evaluating the past.

Genesis Cabrera

2021 Actual

71 games, 0 starts

70 innings

3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.28 FIP

9.90 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB

6.69 H/9, 0.39 HR/9

2021 Projected

60 games, 0 starts

60 innings

4.87 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.41 FIP

10.62 K/9, 4.54 BB/9, 2.34 K:BB

8.53 H/9, 1.33 HR/9

Again, Cabrera was better than I expected in H/9 and HR/9, but worse in K/9. My projection was fairly close otherwise.

As far as projections go, Cabrera gets the nod as he bested my projections, thankfully.

Jake Woodford

2021 Actual

26 games, 8 starts

67 ⅔ innings (4.63 per start)

3.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.50 FIP

6.65 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

8.78 H/9, 0.93 HR/9

2021 Projection

7 games, 7 starts

35 innings (5 per start)

4.87 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 5.26 FIP

7.41 K/9, 4.35 BB/9, 1.70 K:BB

9.05 H/9, 1.48 HR/9

I think that Woodford simply attacked the zone more, as Kyle Reis often talks about him needing to do, and that his K/9 suffered and his BB/9 soared (in a good way) because of it. With the defense that the Cardinals played behind him, his H/9 took a turn for the better and thus did his ERA, WHIP, and FIP.

As far as projections go, Woodford beat mine. Way to go, rook!

Jon Lester

2021 Actual

12 games, 12 starts

66 innings (5.5 per start)

4.36 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.40 FIP

5.45 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 1.54 K:BB

9.27 H/9, 1.50 HR/9

2021 Projection

Not projected because even though he finished 10th on the team in innings pitched, he did not arrive with the team until August. The 3rd through 5th rows of the Actual, above, show why he does not need to be back next year. Look at Woodford’s above there. Look that Hudson will be back and Flaherty will be back and Mikolas will be back and Wainwright will be back and … okay … the Cardinals need to go out and get a BETTER option unless some AAA guys come through. That’s for Kyle to say if they can next year, though. :)

Johan Oviedo

2021 Actual

14 games, 13 starts

62 ⅓ innings (4.44 per game)

4.91 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.27 FIP

7.36 K/9, 5.34 BB/9, 1.38 K:BB

8.81 H/9, 1.16 HR/9

2021 Projection

7 games, 7 starts

35 innings (5 per start)

6.21 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 4.76 FIP

9.08 K/9, 6.64 BB/9, 1.37 K:BB

11.80 H/9, 0.79 HR/9

As far as projections go, I nailed the K:BB but he allowed less walks and struck out far fewer than I thought. I thought he would give up less bombs but more hits. He did the opposite. I projected a bit lower FIP because of the Ks but he allowed a much higher FIP but much lower ERA and WHIP because of the less walks and less hits per inning. I swung and missed on this one, folks.

JA Happ

2021 Actual

11 games, 11 starts

54 innings (4.91 per start)

4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4.61 FIP

7.50 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 2.65 K:BB

8.67 H/9, 1.50 HR/9

2021 Projection

Not projected because even though he finished 12th on the team in innings pitched, he did not arrive with the team until August. Again, I don’t see them bringing Happ back. If he’d have pitched like he did but thrown the innings Lester threw in the final two months then maybe you’re bringing back Happ and not worrying too much about another starter outside the system. The two are not the same person, however. Luckily, they didn’t both throw like Lester for only Happ’s innings.

Ryan Helsley

2021 Actual

51 games, 0 starts

47 ⅓ innings

4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.99 FIP

8.94 K/9, 5.13 BB/9, 1.74 K:BB

7.61 H/9, 0.76 HR/9

2021 Projection

60 games, 0 starts

60 innings

3.97 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.95 FIP

9.96 K/9, 4.23 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB

7.45 H/9, 1.06 HR/9

Helsley just walked more people than I thought he would this year. That command led to less people swinging and missing. Other than that…

As far as projections go, I nailed this one!

Miles Mikolas

2021 Actual

9 games, 9 starts

44 ⅔ innings (4.96 per start)

4.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.40 FIP

6.25 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 2.82 K:BB

8.66 H/9, 1.21 HR/9

2021 Projection

11 games, 11 starts

64 ⅓ innings (5.85 per start)

3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.78 FIP

6.92 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 4.60 K:BB

8.94 H/9, 1.04 HR/9

Miles Mikolas walked more people than I thought he would this year by a bit. Mikolas also struck out less people than I thought he would by a bit. That led to him throwing worse ball and giving up more runs and shortening his outings - along with trying to come back from an injury, which the projections took into account per games started but not with innings per start.

As far as projections go, Miles didn’t quite live up to mine but they were fairly close otherwise. Not my best but nowhere near my worst.

Wade Leblanc

2021 Actual

12 games, 8 starts

42 ⅓ innings

3.61 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.58 FIP

4.89 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 1.44 K:BB

9.57 H/9, 1.49 HR/9

2021 Projection

Not projected because he did not arrive with the team until mid-season. Again, not a guy I look to keep around although I will say that BB/9 shocked me. I thought it was half of that the way he started with us.

TJ McFarland

2021 Actual

38 games, 0 starts

38 ⅔ innings

2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.79 FIP

4.89 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

7.45 H/9, 0.70 HR/9

2021 Projection

Not projected because he did not arrive with the team until mid-season. Not gonna lie, I thought that his BB/9 was closer to what Leblanc had and vice versa. Good on Double Play TJ!

Andrew Miller

2021 Actual

40 games, 0 starts

36 innings

4.75 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.50 FIP

10.00 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 2.50 K:BB

10.25 H/9, 1.25 HR/9

2021 Projection

60 games, 0 starts

60 innings

4.38 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.23 FIP

11.25 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 2.64 K:BB

7.74 H/9, 1.18 HR/9

So typically when a guy gives up more hits than he strikes out, you’re like, “oh, he’s a pitch to contact starter out there to give you innings, right?” and typically you’re right. Miller struck out a bunch of guys per inning this year (less than my projections said he would). He just gave up a crap ton of hits (way more than my projections said he would.

As far as projections go, I missed … he was worse than I thought.

Luis Garcia

2021 Actual

34 games, 0 starts

33 ⅓ innings

3.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.72 FIP

9.18 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 4.25 K:BB

6.75 H/9, 0.54 HR/9

2021 Projection

Not projected because he did not arrive with the team until mid-season. Luis Garcia was a bullpen saver down the stretch, man. Just phenomenal. He just played himself into life changing money from someone.

Daniel Poncedeleon (PDL)

2021 Actual

24 games, 2 starts

33 ⅓ innings

6.21 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 6.11 FIP

6.48 K/9, 5.94 BB/9, 1.09 K:BB

8.64 H/9, 1.35 HR/9

2021 Projection

40 games, 15 starts

100 innings (5 per start)

3.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.08 FIP

9.83 K/9, 4.79 BB/9, 2.05 K:BB

7.16 H/9, 0.91 HR/9

Honestly, it’s hard to actually pitch your way to nearly matching a 6.11 FIP. PDL did it.

As far as projections go, I can’t imagine missing much worse than this one.

Kodi Whitley

2021 Actual

25 games, 0 starts

25 ⅓ innings

2.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.97 FIP

9.59 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 2.25 K:BB

5.33 H/9, 0.36 HR/9

2021 Projection

60 games, 0 starts

60 innings

2.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.83 FIP

10.22 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 3.11 K:BB

9.25 H/9, 0.54 HR/9

In my write up of Whitley prior to the season, I wrote these words:

“So a couple of years back, I went ahead and anointed Giovanny Gallegos the next great Cardinals reliever right here in these projections. I don't know that I'm quite ready to do that just yet with Whitley because of 2020 being such a lost season for so many minor leaguers. But I'm close to doing so. Part of the reason I believe that Whitley could be the next in this line of guys like Brebbia, Gallegos, and more is that these projections are so close to one another - there isn't much spread on a guy like Whitley for some reason. Part of it might be that his minor league stats have been fairly consistent and that he's continued to do it at the higher levels in large-ish samples (over 75 innings in 2019 as a reliever).”

As far as projections go, I’ll say I did a good job of projecting a breakout but didn’t quite get there the same way that Whitley did. He beat my numbers quite well except for walks.

Junior Fernandez

2021 Actual

18 games, 0 starts

20 ⅔ innings

5.66 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 5.15 FIP

6.53 K/9, 6.53 BB/9, 1.00 K:BB

10.89 H/9, 0.87 HR/9

2021 Projection

15 games, 0 starts

15 ⅔ innings

3.75 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 3.64 FIP

9.95 K/9, 5.32 BB/9, 1.87 K:BB

8.84 H/9, 0.41 HR/9

I did not expect 1) Fernandez to get hit as hard as he did nor 2) Fernandez to be unable to miss bats.

As far as projections go, Fernandez did not live up to my expectations.


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