2021 Projection Series - Seth Elledge


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.

Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Seth Elledge's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections (minor league numbers on bottom.

The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2020

12 games, 11 2/3 innings

4.63 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 1.629 WHIP

10.800 K/9, 6.171 BB/9, 1.75 K:BB

This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(Best case)

17 games, 17 1/3 innings

3.83 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.355 WHIP

12.532 K/9, 4.310 BB/9, 2.644 K:BB

Seth Elledge may just walk too many guys to be useful in the back end of the pen, unless he can keep that FIP/ERA this low. He'd be great for the middle innings if this were to come to pass.


THE BAD

(worst case)

14 games, 14 1/3 innings

4.64 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.640 WHIP

10.357 K/9, 5.215 BB/9, 2.185 K:BB

Here you can see that the projections can get ugly in a hurry for Elledge. It's not the worst 14 1/3 inning performance that we're likely to see this year - actually, let's rethink that, this could be an incredibly good bullpen. Let's put it this way instead, if he's getting 14+ innings at this level of play, it's because that attempt at getting his 15th inning went horribly awry and he's not pitching any more after it.


THE CERUTTI

(my system projection)

15 games, 15 2/3 innings

4.22 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.490 WHIP

11.393 K/9, 4.741 BB/9, 2.40 K:BB

My projections just don't see Elledge being consistent enough in the strike zone to be effective enough to stick for the entire seasons. That's all.


Link back to all of my projections.