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2020 Projection Series - John Brebbia

Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.

Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of John Brebbia's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

John Brebbia's MAJOR league stats

John Brebbia MINOR league stats

The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


66 games, 72 2/3 innings 3.59 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 1.183 WHIP 10.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.22 K:BB

This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.



(best case)

65 games, 77 innings 3.05 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.066 WHIP 11.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 4.06 K:BB

Brebbia's ceiling has to be somewhere around here, no? This is just Brebbia figuring out lefties a little bit more.


(worst case)

65 games, 63 2/3 innings 3.69 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.290 WHIP 9.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.36 K:BB

I love that Brebbia's "BAD" is still pretty darn good. It is a step in the wrong direction and is more earned runs allowed (and deserved by the FIP) than I would like. However, if lefties get to him bad this season and he walks that many, this is still a fairly good fallback option in the pen.


(my system projection)

65 games, 70 innings 3.36 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.173 WHIP 10.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.69 K:BB


John “The Beard” Brebbia. John “Brebbs” Brebbia. I don’t know which nickname I like more. See below, but Baseball-Reference’s player photo disagrees with one of those.

Brebbia has compiled three incredibly impressive seasons in a row for the Cardinals bullpen and he finally is getting to pitch in important situations, as he threw in 1 more save situation last year than he did in the prior two years combined. He’s 23 holds and 2 saves in his 29 save opportunities in his career and it’s time that he gets more chances in those situations in 2020.

In any case, how does he get (lots of) batters out?

4sm (93.5 mph, 2389 rpm), SL (83.7 mph, 2605 rpm)

Link back to all of my projections.


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