Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Elehuris Montero's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
N/A
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
385 PA - .233/.296/.373/.669
20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 homers
45 runs, 42 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
So my system is not a believer yet in Mr. Montero. I almost didn't post this because of these numbers in particular. This is a combination of him 1) not ever making it to the majors or even high minors for very long and 2) his abysmal, injury-riddled 2019.
THE BAD
(worst case)
318 PA - .191/.247/.293/.540
12 doubles, 1 triples, 5 homers
30 runs, 29 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
Yeah...so if THE GOOD was what it was, this is going to be worse.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
350 PA - .212/.273/.339/.612
14 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers
37 runs, 35 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
Please keep in mind that this is the system's projection for 2020 were he to get exposed to 300+ PA in 2020. Please don't take this to mean anything more than that as far as your expectations go. I'm certain Kyle Reis will have a much better write up on him than this at a later date.
Link back to all of my projections.
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