Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Dexter Fowler's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
574 PA - .238/.346/.409/.754
24 doubles, 1 triple, 19 homers
69 runs, 67 RBI, 8 SB, 5 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
523 PA - .256/.365/.439/.804
23 doubles, 4 triples, 17 homers
72 runs, 63 RBI, 10 SB, 4 CS
Even this “best case scenario” type year from Dex is below his 2016 and 2017 seasons, in my mind. At this point, this is likely the best of what I see us getting out of Dex. Of course, if we’re getting that I hope that he hits leadoff every day! Those are fine numbers for a leadoff hitter.
THE BAD
(worst case)
432 PA - .209/.306/.355/.661
15 doubles, 2 triples, 11 homers
49 runs, 43 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS
Obviously, this is NOT the worst case scenario as Fowler had 60 points of OPS UNDER those numbers just two seasons ago. This is what my projections consider the worst case scenario for the 2020 season.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
475 PA - .233/.337/.399/.735
19 doubles, 3 triples, 14 homers
60 runs, 52 RBI, 8 SB, 4 CS
Last year, I called for a bounce back season from Fowler and nailed it almost exactly. Dexter had an awful 2018 and anyone with half a brain and access to statistics knew that he was going to rebound; and rebound he did. Now, a “rebound” does not mean that Dexter Fowler lit the world on fire. He was average. The Cardinals likely need more than average out of him this year. What my projections say about him this year is that he is likely to get slightly worse at age 34 than his bounce back at age 33. It is why I am calling for 3 open competitions for the outfield this spring - and truthfully all year long.
Link back to all of my projections.
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