2020 Projection Series - Andrew Knizner


Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.


Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Andrew Knizner's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.

Andrew Knizner MAJOR league stats

Andrew Knizner's MINOR league stats

The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.


2019

58 PA - .226/.293/.377/.670

2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 homers

7 runs, 7 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS


This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.

THE GOOD

(best case)

303 PA - .292/.356/.447/.803

14 doubles, 0 triples, 9 homers

38 runs, 38 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS


How could this happen? Well, Andrew Knizner has always shown in the minors that he can put the bat to the ball and drive the gaps quite well. He has also shown good plate discipline (I don't know that will turn into a .370 OBP type of discipline). If he has this type of year, Yadi better be having his "What if..." projection as well if Knizner's only getting 303 PA putting this type of year up.


THE BAD

(worst case)

250 PA - .239/.297/.326/.623

6 doubles, 0 triples, 4 homers

26 runs, 26 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS


This is oftentimes what happens when young talent doesn't get to play as often as they are accustomed to playing. It fizzles. It fizzles badly. This would be a nightmare, however.


THE CERUTTI

(my system's projection)

275 PA - .266/.328/.407/.734

11 doubles, 0 triples, 8 homers

31 runs, 32 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS

Note: This is the first projection I've published this year that is contingent on the player even being in the majors. Andrew Knizner may not be. Knizner made his MLB debut in 2019. He should start in the majors again in 2020 and be the reserve catcher. Or at least one of the reserve catchers - as I will not count out the Cardinals keeping 3 to make sure to use Knizner's bat (or the 3rd catcher's bat) while keeping one on the bench and not use him. They shouldn't do that, but I'm not counting it out.


Knizner was not very impressive at the plate in 2020 in the major leagues. He had never been the backup before. That takes its toll on players, especially the first time around. Getting Knizner 275 PA should be a priority - and I believe the Cardinals can do that quite easily with Yadi's age getting up there.


Link back to all of my projections.