2019 Projection Series - Drew Robinson


In Drew Robinson’s career, he has been a long-time minor leaguer. He has over 3,450 minor league plate appearances. Over 1,100 of them have come at the AAA level of the upper minors. Here are what the last three years have looked like for him in AAA (keep in mind that he was 24, 25, and 26 years old in these seasons and he had seen AAA action in 8 games in 2014 and 7 games in 2015 prior to these three extended looks.


2016 (age 24) AAA: 539 PA - .257/.350/.480/.830

2017 (age 25) AAA: 309 PA - .268/.369/.494/.863

2018 (age 26) AAA: 243 PA - .303/.379/.569/.948


That shows me that the kid can hit more comfortably when he gets familiar with his surroundings. It also shows me the raw power the kid has as his ISO each year went from .223 to .226 to .266 in those seasons. Even the worst of those is pretty darn good.


However, the opposite has been true in his two short stints at the MLB level.


2017 (age 25) MLB: 121 PA - .224/.314/.439/.753

2018 (age 26) MLB: 125 PA - .183/.288/.294/.582


The ISO carried from AAA to the majors in 2017, but ouch on those 2018 numbers.


Because my projections rely so much on sample size when it comes to statistics, they actually like Robinson quite a bit for this coming season. Here is what they say for Robinson, given 415 PA on the bench:


415 PA

.236/.328/.431/.759

57 runs, 19 doubles, 5 triples, 14 homers, 46 RBI

33.0% K rate, 11.8% BB rate, 8 SB, 6 CS


First off, that .195 ISO puts him better than much of the team. It’s the second best power from the left side of the plate pretty easily behind Carpenter. Secondly, prorate that to 600 PA and we’re talking about a guy with 56 extra base hits! Whoa. Wasn’t expecting that...considering my projections give 53 in 637 PA and DeJong just 57 in 579 PA. Pretty darn cool.


How/If things go wrong:


How could things go wrong? Well, MLB pitchers took his fairly decent 2017 cup o’ joe and demolished him the second time around. What if that happens - or worse - the third time around? He better not get 415 PA if that’s the case!


What can be pointed out to show that things CAN be better than that?!?


Remember above...the first gain in AAA year over year was modest. The third season (the second gain) was tremendous. What if he can somehow hit .250 and ISO .200 with that 11+% BB rate (that in AAA finished at a 12.6% for his career through the 2018 season)? That’s gonna put him in some pretty good company on an overall line.